How Mumbai tackled the rising curve

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) on Friday released figures that showed that Mumbai’s daily positivity rate had dropped from a high of 20.8 per cent in the beginning of April to 9.9 per cent by the end of the month. A declining positivity rate suggests that the number of infections in the city is decreasing.

Since the second wave of Covid-19 began in February, Mumbai’s success in flattening the curve is being attributed to a timely lockdown, aggressive testing and effective triaging system. At 11,573, after touching the highest single day fresh cases on April 3, the city has been recording less than 4,000 daily cases in the last week.

Experts believe mobility restrictions, coupled with BMC’s ability to pull together all of its resources, has helped the city tide over the crisis.

Open Covid centres

BMC officials believe their decision to not dismantle Covid-19 centres after the first wave ebbed last year was crucial in being able to handle the second wave. Last December, when daily Covid-19 cases had declined to 300-400, Additional Municipal Commissioner Suresh Kakani had decided to maintain the facilities till March 31, 2021.

“In February and March, when the number of cases started to rise, we managed to re-start the facilities in the minimum possible time,” said Kakani. Officials said the number of beds was increased from 12,000 to 23,000 within four to six weeks. Also, the number of ICU beds went up from 1,500 to 2,800.

War rooms

The BMC’s 24 ward-level war rooms set up for bed management in hospitals has helped in setting up one of the most effective triaging system in the country, ensuring systematic allotment of beds and preventing people from running from one hospital to another as was the case during the first wave.

Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of Maharashtra’s Covid Task Force, said: “It eased out anxiety experienced by patients while hunting for beds.”

Testing ramped up

As the second wave hit, BMC ramped up testing facilities in the city. By March 1, BMC was conducting about 20,000 daily tests. The number increased at the end of March to about 40,000 tests. On April 12, Mumbai conducted the highest number of tests – 56,000 – in a single day. In April, the city’s daily positivity rate was consistently around 20 per cent with the highest positivity rate of 27.94 per cent recorded on April 4.

Questions, however, are being raised about the decrease in the number of daily tests being conducted at present. The number has declined from 51,319 on April 3 to 43,525 on April 29.

Lockdown-like curbs

Officials said action against people not following Covid-19 norms, random testing and effective control of lockdown-like curbs led to a decline in daily cases. “With the lockdown-like restrictions, we managed to break the chain of infection,” said Dr Bhupendra Patil, BMC Medical Officer of Health, M West ward (Chembur).

The way ahead

Experts have a word of caution: It is too early to let the guard down. “There are two current concerns – to make intensive care and critical care beds available to those who need them and lower the mortality rate. The biggest challenge is to contain asymptomatic cases,” said Joshi.