Covid +ve cases in April equal no. tests in September

NAGPUR: The number of Covid positive cases in April were as good as the number of tests done in September last year.
Considering the numbers and views of experts, April was probably the peak of the second wave and highly contagious and virulent compared with the first wave’s peak which was in September last year.
“It seems that April was the peak of the second wave as the weekly test positivity rate (TPR) and growth rate of cases are on the decline in the last week after recording new highs. The TPR of the first week of May can give the exact picture, whether the peak is over or not. Probably cases may decline in May,” infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde told TOI.
The district registered 1,81,749 cases for a daily average (DA) of 6,058 in April. the number of tests were 1,96,722 for a DA of 6,557 in September 2020. Cases in April were 3.75 times higher than those recorded in September last year (48,457 for DA of 1,615).
Tests were 1,96,722 (DA-6,557) in September last year whereas the April count was 6,51,638 (DA-21,721).
The number of cases in September last year was the highest in the pandemic till the beginning of the second wave in the third week of February this year. Cases were 76,250 in March, surpassing the ones registered in September last year. Compared with March, cases in April were 2.38 times higher.
Despite a spike in tests, TPR of April was high at 27.89%, it was 24.63% in September last year. The figures indicate that Covid was highly contagious in April.
Similarly, deaths were 1.56 times higher in April compared with those registered in September last year. Fatalities were 2,290 (DA- 76) whereas in September 2020, the figure was 1,465 (DA-49). The disease was virulent in April.
Thus, cases, tests and deaths were highest in April compared with all the 13 months in the pandemic. But the case fatality rate (CFR) in April was less compared with from August to October last year due to a high number of cases in April. CFR in April was 1.26% whereas it was 3.80% in August followed by 3.02% in September and 3.55% in October last year.
With cases at a new high, recoveries in April were also the highest. Nealy 1,42,084 patients recovered in April which was 3.29 times higher than September last year (43,223).
As far as active cases are concerned, the highest-ever in a day were 77,556 on April 25. The highest single day active cases were 21,746 in September last year. This led to the district facing a huge shortage of beds.
Due to the high number of cases in April, the tally of the district surged to 4,07,787 on April 30. Similarly, tests swelled to 22,75,915. The total toll the district also increased to 7,388 and recoveries to 3,23,693.
The district registered 6,461 cases on April 30, 1,035 cases less compared with the 7,496 recorded on April 29. Cases have declined below 6,500 in three out of the last five days.
The district had recorded a new high of daily cases between April 21 and 25. Cases were 37,828 in these five days for a daily average of 7,566.
As per the data of the state’s public health department, the district’s weekly TPR was 35.02% on April 19. It declined to 32.65% on April 27. The weekly growth rate of cases was 2.24% on April 19 which too declined to 2.03% on April 27.
All these parameters endorse the projection of Dr Shinde that April was the peak with chances of decline in cases, TPR etc in May.