From 80,000 now, active cases of Nagpur district may reach 1.13 lakh in 12 days

NAGPUR: The number of Covid-19 active cases in the district is likely to increase to 1,13,093 from existing 80,028, a rise of 33,065, in the next 12 days, as per the state government’s latest projection.
The district is likely to face shortage of 53,964 beds by May 11 if the active cases surge as projected. Of them, there will be shortage of 10,381 beds in hospitals — 8,679 with oxygen supply, 1,247 in ICU and 455 with ventilators. The remaining projected shortage of 43,583 beds in Covid care centres (CCC).
In the district, less than 1% of total active patients are in CCCs and around 80% are in home isolation. The authorities have failed to convince positive patients to stay in CCCs. Patients are reportedly preferring home isolation.
Therefore, the district needs to be worried only about shortage of 10,381 beds in hospitals if the active cases increase as per the projection.
As per data of district administration, there are 9,835 functional beds in the district. The Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) started 120-bed Covid hospital at KT Nagar beginning with 25 beds a couple of days ago. On Thursday, 136-bed facility was started at Shri Ayurved College with 25 beds. Beds are likely to be increased to total capacity in phased manner in these two hospitals.
Data available from NMC shows that 175 beds with oxygen supply and 16 in ICU were vacant at 5pm in the city on Thursday.
Discrepancies continued in the number of active cases as per data of state’s public health department (PHD) and district civil surgeon (CS). As per PHD, district’s active cases were 80,028 while put the number at 77,627.
On April 21, the government had projected active cases at 1,23,680 by May 2, which is not likely to be the case as growth in cases has stabilized in last four days and number also declined on two days (April 26 and 27) by 3,631.
There are 10,587 less active cases in the latest projection as compared to the previous one. This is probably due to halt in growth of cases.
The district on Thursday registered 7,496 cases. There were 7,503 new cases a day ago. The cases in last two days are slightly less as compared with record new high of cases registered between April 21 and 25. Cases were 37,828 in these five days for a daily average of 7,566.
The district reported 89 patients on Thursday. Though high, the fatalities too have stabilized.
As per projection, nine of remaining 10 districts of Vidarbha are likely to face severe shortage of beds. Amravati district is the only from Vidarbha and third after Mumbai and Jalgaon to have surplus beds.
After Nagpur, Chandrapur district is facing severe crisis of beds. As per projection, active cases in Chandrapur are likely to rise from existing 26,613 to 40,428 by May 11. The district is likely to face shortage of 22,187 beds, of which 16,995 in CCCs, 3,989 beds with oxygen supply, 954 in ICU and 249 beds with ventilators.