Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) share ended marginally lower ahead of the conglomerate's Q4 earnings scheduled to be announced today. Share of RIL ended 1.42% lower at Rs 1,994 on BSE. The stock has gained 6.35% in the last 5 days. The stock trades higher than 5 day, 20 day and 100 day moving averages but lower than 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
The large cap stock has gained 38.29% in one year and risen 2.23% since the beginning of this year. Market cap of the firm rose to Rs 12.83 lakh crore on BSE.
Kotak Securities sees a 2 per cent rise in consolidated sales at Rs 1,39,012 crore in Q4 against Rs 1,36,240 crore in the year-ago quarter. Profit is expected to rise 109 per cent to Rs 13,248 crore compared with Rs 6,348 crore in the year-ago quarter.
"We expect EBITDA for Jio to rise Rs 600 crore sequentially led by a rise in subscriber base to 42.1 crore (up 1 crore QoQ) and see ex-IUC ARPU rising to Rs 144 per user. We see Ebitda for retail rising Rs 400 crore sequentially led by sustained recovery in revenues and margins," Kotak Securities said.
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JM Financial expects Reliance's EBITDA to rise 9 per cent sequentially. The brokerage sees a recovery in the retail business and growth in Jio's subscriber base. Jio's ARPU is also expected to recover, adjusted for IUC impact.
However, it sees refining margin to remain subdued at $6.5 per barrel despite crude inventory gains. Q4 profit is seen rising 107 per cent to Rs 13,150 crore. The brokerage sees EBITDA margin at 15.7 per cent.
"Digital EBITDA is likely to rise 3.1 per cent QoQ with net subscriber addition likely at 70 lakh QoQ on expectation of some pick up in subscriber momentum from March due to new JioPhone offer. ARPU is expected to optically decline to Rs 138 from Rs 151 in December quarter due to elimination of IUC from January. On an adjusted basis, it may rise 1.5 per cent. Retail EBITDA is likely to rise 8.7 per cent QoQ at Rs 3,370 crore led by recovery in revenue," it said.
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