Assam health dept fears another Covid-19 surge after poll results

GUWAHATI: With only 10-15% of the total Covid cases being hospitalised in Assam, the pandemic situation may be well under control for the next two weeks, says the health department.
But they are also looking at a scenario where the administration fails to check activism during the announcement of the election results.
This could be a big challenge for health officials though the election commission has put a ban on victory rallies. Daily cases may surge up to 4,000 per day next week in Assam, fears health officials.
Assam has been reporting around 3,000 cases daily in the last few days.
“There is likely to be some more movement during and after the counting day on May 2. So the number of cases may go up. Even otherwise, we are expecting some rise in May,” a senior official of the state health department, said.
After elections were over in Assam early this month, the number of daily positive cases suddenly started showing an upward trend.
While it remains a debatable issue for the health experts if the election campaigns contributed to the spread, data reveals significant trends.
On April 9, altogether 25,119 Covid-19 tests were conducted across the state and 281 new cases were detected at a positivity rate of 1.12%.
About 20 days later, the number of positive cases has increased 10-fold, as the daily number of Covid cases detected in Assam stood at 3,045 on Wednesday.
Considering the 5.49% positivity rate after conducting 55,480 Covid tests, health sources said the number of cases will certainly go up if daily tests touch the one lakh mark.
The Indian Medical Association has advised the state government to accelerate the testing mechanism like in the first phase.
They, however, said that despite the concerns of the second wave, the number of tests in recent times has been ‘very low’.
“It is also of concern that test kits are not easily available and testing by private players has considerably gone down after the irrational ceiling by the government,” said IMA, Assam chapter president, Dr Satyajit Borah.
Despite the scary situation in Guwahati, health officials said that over 2,000 beds are available in and around the state capital, from where the highest number of daily cases is being reported.
Out of these, around 400 beds were lying vacant as on Thursday evening. A senior health official termed this a comfortable position, at least for the next two days. But the latest trend, health officials said, has been disturbing.
“In many instances, we have noticed that all family members have been detected Covid positive. This has contributed significantly to the rise in cases,” said Gauhati Medical College Hospital principal Dr Achyut Baishya.
More than 6,000 beds for Covid cases are reserved for positive patients in Assam as on Thursday morning when the number of active cases in the state were around 22,000.
“Including Kamrup (Metropolitan) district, where 1,200-1,300 Covid cases are being detected daily, beds are still available for positive cases. There is no dearth of Remdesivir or medical oxygen in the state. But cases are on the rise and what will be the situation after 15 days has to observed closely,” executive director of Assam National Health Mission, Dr Manoj Choudhury, told TOI on Monday.