The pace of COVID-19 vaccinations in India dropped again in the latest ten days of April compared to the first ten days. From over 3.6 million (mn) average daily doses administered in the first ten days of April, vaccination levels dropped to 2.8 mn in the next ten days. If the latest vaccination rate continues, the number of doses will still exceed the lower bound of the 400 mn-500 mn target set for July 31. However, if India is aiming to vaccinate all adults (940 mn people * 2 doses) by 2021, the average doses should increase to at least 6.8 mn per day, 2.5 times the current rate. Worryingly, many States that witnessed a rapid increase in cases during the second wave registered a drop in vaccination rates.
Degree of drop
From April 11-20, 2.85 mn doses were administered daily on an average in India, compared to 3.64 mn between April 1-10. At the current pace, India would be able to administer 421 million doses by July 31, around 21 million doses more than the target (lower bound) of 400 million, and 79 million fewer than the upper bound.
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See-sawing
In the latest ten days of April, a consistent drop in vaccine delivery meant that the 2M average daily doses administered fell below the 3-million mark between April 18 and April 20.
State of play
The chart shows average daily doses administered from April 1-10 (P1) and April 11-20 (P2) in major States. Most States that are seeing a rapid rise in infections administered a lower number of doses during P2 than P1 on an average.