If the world continues at its current pace, heating is predicted to reach almost double that. And much of the power to make a difference lies with the big emitters. So are they making progress? Though the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis led to a drop in energy use in 2020 compared to the previous year, the United States is still second only to China in terms of global CO2 emissions. Transportation, electricity and industry are the main drivers behind the country’s poor record, according to figures from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In 2019, fossil fuels accounted for 80% of US energy consumption.

Under US former President Donald Trump, who overtly denied human-caused climate change and pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement, the country ranked the worst in the world for climate protection efforts for two consecutive years. But with President Joe Biden now at the helm, there is a mood change on environmental matters. He formally rejoined the Paris agreement as soon as he took office, compiled an environmental team and has pledged to make the US a cleaner, greener country. This includes reversing many of the Trump-era initiatives that systematically rolled back ecological protection regulations and served to prop up the oil and gas industries. At a climate summit, Biden is expected to commit the US to 50% emissions cuts by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, according to multiple US media reports.

China is the largest carbon emitter globally. But it also has the world’s largest population. China’s annual per capita emissions are growing, and at 7 tons they are already higher than the roughly 5-ton global average. As the world’s top manufacturing nation and the largest exporter of goods, embedded emissions — CO2 embedded in exported goods — are a big issue for China. Because CO2 emissions are generally measured by the amount a country directly emits, nations can reduce their emissions by outsourcing carbon-emitting production abroad to places like China.

However, China also benefits from this means of emissions measuring. While it has cut the share of coal in its own energy mix, it invests heavily in coal-fired power projects around the world. But China has made climate promises, aiming to bring emissions to a peak by “around 2030” and further reduce its use of fossil fuels in the next decade.

India is the world’s third-largest carbon emitter. But its CO2 output is far lower than both China and the US. And when India’s huge population is taken into account, the picture looks different again. Its emissions per capita are actually less than half the global average. That’s partly because a large proportion of the population lives below the poverty line — more than a quarter, according to the UN’s latest human development report.

However, India is developing fast. Its energy demands are rising, as are its emissions. The country meets its energy needs mainly through coal. Fossil fuels account for almost three-quarters of India’s total energy consumption, UN figures show. The government has promised to change that, saying India aims to generate 40% of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. Unlike other big emitters — China, the US and the EU — India has not set a net-zero emissions goal for the middle of the century. Under its Paris Agreement pledge, it said it would reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 33% to 35% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.