NAGPUR: Covid-19 active positive cases are likely to surge to a new high of 1,23,680 in next 11 days in Nagpur district as per the state government’s projection. The government has calculated district will be short of 45,305 beds as per projected cases and directed the authorities to ramp up the infrastructure.
Active cases were 71,557 in the district on Wednesday. It means an increase of 52,123 by May 2 as per the projection. It also means the current surge continuing. The district is already having a severe shortage of oxygen beds. Situation of beds in ICU and with ventilators is even worse.
As per government’s projection, the district will be short of 10,476 beds with oxygen, 1,945 ICU beds and 520 beds with ventilators. Remaining shortage of 32,364 beds is in isolation facilities or Covid Care Centres (CCCs).
Since beginning of second wave, less than 1% of active patients have been in CCCs. The government had time and again directed the authorities to ensure 40% of patients are kept in CCCs for containing the spread and preventing deaths. Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC), district administration and Zilla Parishad (ZP) failed to comply with the directives saying patients were not ready to move into CCCs.
As against norm of having no more than 20% active patients in home isolation, the district has around 80%. Guardian minister Nitin Raut told TOI, “We are making all efforts to increase the beds with oxygen supply. Two Jumbo Covid Hospitals with 1,600 beds and new Covid Hospitals are proposed.”
Infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde said, “Access to medical care is very necessary to control deaths. District should have been equipped with necessary number of beds by now as the second wave has lasted 12 weeks in other countries. We are witnessing second wave for last nine weeks and it is likely to go on until end of May. Vaccination and full lockdown are not likely to work as district is facing community spread. Need is to develop makeshift facilities where people can get oxygen, CT scan, diagnosis and treatment on time.”
Except Amravati, all districts of Vidarbha are likely to face severe shortage of beds as per projected active cases.
Active cases in the district on April 19 (76,961) were 354% more than highest number in first wave (21,746). Among 35 districts in the state, Nagpur is at fourth place after Pune, Mumbai and Thane.
Two districts of Vidarbha- Bhandara and Chandrapur— are on top as far as weekly growth rate of the cases is concerned. Weekly growth rate of Bhandara is 3.63% and Chandrapur’s 3.48%. For Nagpur it is 2.24%, probably due to high number of cases in last month. Except Yavatmal, Akola and Amravati, all districts of Vidarbha are in the red category in weekly growth rate.
Nagpur district (3,22,091) is second after Mumbai (4,11,998) in testing per million population. Bhandara (2,02,934) is fifth and Wardha (1,86,022) sixth. Remaining eight districts are in the red category due to less testing.
Three Vidarbha districts Nagpur (35.02%), Gadchiroli (34.3%) and Gondia (33.23%) are in red category as far as weekly test positivity rate is concerned.
After Kolhapur, Bhandara and Nagpur districts are in second and third place for vaccination of 45-plus population. Coverage is 41.48% (1,57,442 vaccinated against 3,79,532 eligible persons) in Bhandara district and 41% (6,48,541 vaccinated against 15,81,800 eligible persons) in Nagpur district.