Putin’s New Climate Goal is a Lot Less Ambitious Than it Sounds

(Bloomberg) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin gave more airtime than usual to climate issues during his state-of-the-nation address on the eve of a climate summit being organized by his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden, but the emissions goal he touted isn’t as ambitious as he made it sound.

His proposed target of lower total net emissions than the European Union over the next three decades doesn’t necessarily signal a big change since annual pollution from the bloc is currently about 2 1/2 times higher. He also said Russia needs to modernize its economy to adapt to climate change and stay competitive.

“This is a daunting task given the size of our country, its geography, climate and economic structure,” Putin said. “However, I am absolutely sure that such a goal, taking into account our scientific and technological potential, is completely achievable.”

The comments come as other world leaders compete ahead of the summit to outline more ambitious targets, with most of the world’s biggest economies now aiming for climate neutrality by mid-century. Russia’s commitment under the Paris Agreement implies a small increase in emissions from current levels because it uses the highly-polluting Soviet Union as its baseline.

Still, the fact that Putin is paying attention to the topic and attending the summit represents a step forward for a leader who usually mocks renewable energy.

Russia’s Getting Left Behind in Global Dash for Clean Energy

Russia currently emits about 1.5 billion tons of CO2 equivalent per year, compared to about 4 billion tons for the EU. The base case under a long-term climate strategy set to be adopted in Russia later in 2021 forecasts emissions of nearly 2 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2050, though that could be reduced to 1.62 billion tons under an optimistic scenario. The EU is targeting net zero emissions by mid-century.

Since Putin’s goal refers to the sum of all emissions over the next 30 years, it could be achieved, but “Russia would have to start implementing measures right now,” said Vasily Yablokov, head of Greenpeace Russia’s climate program. “It’s in no way compatible with Russia’s plans to extract fossil fuels from the Arctic.”

In the same speech on Wednesday, Putin ordered progress on the construction of a railroad that will help drive extraction of some of the “richest resources” in the Arctic.

Russia’s parliament approved in its first reading the country’s first ever legislation on carbon regulation on Tuesday. If it becomes law, the bill will make emissions reporting compulsory for large greenhouse gas emitters, though projects to reduce pollution will still be voluntary.

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