U.S. to run out of enthusiastic vaccine-takers in 2-4 weeks

Caitlin Owens
·1 min read

Data: CivicScience; Chart: Axios Visuals

The U.S. will probably run out of adults who are enthusiastic about getting vaccinated within the next two to four weeks, according to a KFF analysis published yesterday.

Between the lines: Vaccine hesitancy is rapidly approaching as our main impediment to herd immunity.

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free

  • "It appears we are quite close to the tipping point where demand for rather than supply of vaccines is our primary challenge," the authors write.

  • "Federal, state, and local officials, and the private sector, will face the challenge of having to figure out how to increase willingness to get vaccinated among those still on the fence, and ideally among the one-fifth of adults who have consistently said they would not get vaccinated or would do so only if required."

Related: Republicans who say they don't want to get the vaccine are becoming only more resistant, the Washington Post reports.

  • "The further we go into the vaccination process, the more passionate the hesitancy is," Frank Luntz, a longtime GOP communications expert, said after a Zoom focus group session last weekend. "If you've refused to take the vaccine this long, it's going to be hard to switch you."

  • Participants in the focus group said they were concerned by the prospect of booster shots, and most said they would want a fake vaccination card.

More from Axios: Sign up to get the latest market trends with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free

Recommended Stories

  • COVID ‘vaccine failure’ may be more likely if you have a weakened immune system. Why?

    Patients with weakened immune systems have a greater than 30% risk of death if they contract COVID-19.

  • PNG passes 10,000 infections as COVID-19 spreads beyond the capital

    SYDNEY (Reuters) -The number of coronavirus infections in Papua New Guinea (PNG) rose past 10,000 on Wednesday, an alarming milestone for the Pacific country as health officials worry that its fragile health system is at risk of being overwhelmed. PNG logged 245 new cases in the 24 hours to midday on Tuesday, continuing a run of daily increases of more than 200, putting its total at 10,197, although its tally of reported deaths from the coronavirus was steady at 91. In a departure from previous updates that showed most new cases near the capital, Port Moresby, the COVID-19 National Pandemic Response said the new infections occurred in 17 of the country's 22 provinces, implying a broader spread.

  • Fully-vaccinated dorm resident among 14 new COVID cases in Singapore

    The Ministry of Health (MOH) confirmed 14 new COVID-19 cases in Singapore on Tuesday (20 April) including one new case of locally transmitted infection, taking the country's total case count to 60,865.

  • How the risk of a post-vaccination COVID-19 infection compares to other daily dangers

    The early returns on COVID-19 vaccinations have largely been positive in the United States and elsewhere. There have certainly been so-called "breakthrough" cases, in which fully vaccinated people have been infected, but The New York Times' David Leonhardt notes that statistics so far indicate the chances of that happening are about one in 11,000, and the rate dwindles even further when it comes to the chances of developing anything worse than a mild infection. Still, many people who have been vaccinated remain nervous. This is understandable, Leonhardt writes, given the novelty of the virus and the toll it's taken. The risk of dying from COVID-19 post-vaccination is probably more akin to "high profile," but "extremely rare dangers" like plane crashes, lightning strikes, or shark attacks. Getting in a car, on the other hand, is a "bigger threat," Leonhardt writes. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver and data scientist David Shor also made this point, and Shor estimated that the "per hour risk of killing somebody driving sober is at least 33 times higher than the per hour risk of killing somebody from [COVID-19] hanging out maskless post-vaccination." That's where sociologist Zeynep Tufekci jumped in. Tufekci generally agrees that COVID-19 vaccination leads to a "dramatic risk reduction." She does, however, think the risks of driving and doing certain activities while vaccinated are not completely comparable. That's because car accidents are generally more individualized, while spreading COVID-19 can lead to a transmission chain, which is why Tufekci thinks government agencies need to be explicit about how effectively the vaccines curb transmission to determine what the true risk factor is. (Car crashes also affect others but car crashes do not have transmission chains. Do the vaccinated initiate transmission chains to the degree we need to think about it? Is it so blunted that this is no longer a big enough risk?That should be the explicit CDC discussion). — zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) April 19, 2021 More stories from theweek.comAll 40 movies nominated for an Oscar this year, rankedThe new HBO show you won't be able to stop watchingFormer Trump aides are reportedly frustrated he didn't become vaccine 'salesman-in-chief' as planned

  • Coronavirus latest news: Boris Johnson warns we 'can't delude ourselves Covid has gone away'

    Covid treatment tablets could be available to take at home by autumn EU regulator finds 'possible link' between J&J vaccine and rare blood clots Mass Covid testing is a 'waste of time and money', MPs warned Border officials finding '100 fake Covid test certificates a day' India will offer a vaccine to all citizens over the age of 18 from May Subscribe to The Telegraph for a month-long free trial The Prime Minister has warned that the UK cannot "delude ourselves" into thinking that the threat of coronavirus has disappeared, as infections surge to new heights internationally. Speaking at a Downing Street press conference, Boris Johnson said that the UK's vaccination programme is making a "big difference" in the fight against the virus, "helping to reduce suffering and save lives potentially on a very big scale." But he also struck a cautious note, warning that we "don't yet know the full extent of the protection that we're building up or the exact strength of our defences". He also hinted to the global picture, which is increasingly dire. According to the World Health Organization, cases globally rose for the eighth week in a row last week - with 5.2 million cases reported, the biggest number ever recorded in a seven days. The surge is largely driven by sharp upticks in countries including India and Brazil. "As we look at what's happening in other countries with record cases around the world, we cannot delude ourselves that Covid has gone away," Mr Johnson said, adding that the "majority of scientific opinion in this country" is that there will be another wave of Covid at some point this year. But, on a slightly more optimistic note, the Prime Minister suggested there remains "nothing in the data" to suggest the need to deviate from the "cautious but irreversible" roadmap previously outlined. And he stressed that vaccines and new therapeutics - the Government has unveiled plans to push for an antiviral pill that can be taken at home - will help the UK to live with the disease. Follow the latest updates below.

  • Colorado offers COVID-19 vaccines without an appointment

    Colorado is now making COVID-19 vaccines available without an appointment, part of the state's race to immunize people amid the increasing spread of the virus' variants.Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for freeDriving the news: Three vaccine sites are now accepting walk-in patients and others are taking same-day appointments.The walk-in locations are:Ball Arena in Denver, 9am to 7pm, Monday through Friday.The Ranch in Loveland, 10am to 6pm, Monday through Saturday.Colorado State Fairgrounds in Pueblo, 9am to 5pm, Monday through Friday.Why it matters: The new phase in the state's vaccine campaign is possible because there's more supply than immediate demand, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis said Tuesday. The situation mirrors national trends showing that the U.S. will probably run out of adults who are enthusiastic about getting vaccinated within the next two to four weeks, Axios Vitals writer Caitlin Owens writes.Half of adults in Colorado have received at least one shot, and about one-third are fully vaccinated.Another 10% don't want the vaccine, the governor said, though polls the state paid for show it's likely a much larger share of the population.By the numbers: Hospitalization and case numbers are at their highest level since late January, officials said.Colorado reported 819 people contracted COVID-19 after being immunized but stressed it's a small portion — only 1 in every 7,000 people who were vaccinated, an analysis showed.Between the lines: The Polis administration is now focusing its energy on convincing the hesitant to get vaccinated now that it's easier. "This is time to stop procrastinating and show up. … Now we do have enough for everybody," the governor said.Yes, but: The state shut down two more community vaccination sites, one in Brighton and one in Westminster, after discovering problems related to how the provider Advanced Urgent Care stored the doses, according to the Denver Gazette.State officials are stepping up protocols after missing problems at Dr. Moma Health and Wellness, a clinic in Colorado Springs that offered the vaccine.Responding to questions, Polis sought to downplay the problems, saying he has "a high degree in confidence in our partners."Like this article? Get more from Axios and subscribe to Axios Markets for free.

  • Swedish health agency: Those under 65 should receive different vaccine than AstraZeneca's for second dose

    The Swedish Health Agency on Tuesday recommended that people under 65 years old who received the first shot of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine should get a different vaccine for the second shot.Why it matters: There are no definitive studies regarding immune responses when initial and follow-up vaccine doses are different. The agency said that when results on mixing different doses are released they will evaluate whether the recommendation should be changed.Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for freeResearchers from the University of Oxford in February began a trial where people received a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine after a dose of AstraZeneca's or vice versa, per the New York Times. They will analyze the participants' blood to see how they respond to the mixing.What they're saying: "The recommendation that people under the age of 65 should not be vaccinated with AstraZeneca's vaccine Vaxzevria remains for the time being," the agency said"People under the age of 65 who have already received a dose of Vaxzevria should instead be offered a second dose of so-called mRNA vaccine, such as Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna."The agency is recommending that those who received their first AstraZeneca dose should receive a second dose of an mRNA vaccine approximately 12–15 weeks after, and no additional booster mRNA dose is required.For people over 65, the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine outweigh the risks.More from Axios: Sign up to get the latest market trends with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free

  • Have a loved one who doesn't want to get the COVID-19 vaccine? Here's how to talk to them.

    Some health experts also fear last week's recommendation to pause use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine may contribute to hesitancy.

  • Oxygen leak kills 22 in Indian hospital as coronavirus infections mount

    At least 22 patients died on Wednesday in a hospital in western India after a disruption to their oxygen supply caused by a leaking tank, the health minister said, as a nationwide surge in coronavirus cases soaks up supplies of the crucial gas. The incident in the city of Nashik, one of India's worst-hit areas, happened after the tank of gas leaked, said Rajesh Tope, the health minister of Maharashtra, the richest state, where the city is located. "Patients who were on ventilators at the hospital in Nashik have died," Tope said in televised remarks.

  • Hawaii announces COVID vaccine passport program for inter-island travel

    Hawaii will from next month allow residents who've been fully inoculated against COVID-19 to bypass the state's pre-travel tests and quarantine for inter-island flights.Why it matters: Hawaii is the second U.S. state to launch a "vaccination verification" scheme after New York, AP notes. Many businesses view such "vaccine passports" as key to returning to normal, but some Republican governors have taken steps to block them.Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for freeStarting May 11, fully vaccinated travelers who received their vaccine in Hawaii may travel inter-county (Kauai, Maui, & Hawaii) without having to take a pre-travel test or quarantining for 10 days. People are fully vaccinated on the 15th day following their final vaccine dose. pic.twitter.com/bnsx6mW5SX— Governor David Ige (@GovHawaii) April 20, 2021 Of note: The American Civil Liberties Union has said if vaccine passports are solely digital it'd "increase inequality," excluding people who don't have phones. It wants them to be "primarily paper-based, decentralized, and protect privacy." Gov. David Ige (D) said at a briefing Tuesday that Hawaiians could use paper records for the program and that the state was working with private firms that would be accessing people's records to ensure privacy was protected.What they're saying: Ige noted that Hawaii's coronavirus case numbers and mortality rates were among the lowest in the U.S.Ige said the lifting of travel restrictions for fully vaccinated people "does not apply to trans-Pacific travelers at this point," but officials were working to expand the scheme to other travelers later.Go deeper: Vaccine passports for workLike this article? Get more from Axios and subscribe to Axios Markets for free.

  • Demand may exceed supply as CEO of one of the world’s biggest hotel groups sees ‘surge’ in bookings

    Hotel and airline industry will begin to bounce back by second half of 2021, according to the chief executive of InterContinental Hotels.

  • Japan eyes state of emergency for Tokyo, Osaka regions amid virus surge

    TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's government is considering a state of emergency for Tokyo and Osaka as new COVID-19 case numbers surge, broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday, a move that would enable prefectural authorities to impose curbs to try to stop infections spreading. With thousands of new cases resulting from highly infectious strains of the virus, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said the government wanted to decide this week whether to declare the state of emergency for major parts of the country. Suga said the capital Tokyo was mulling a request to the central government to issue the state of emergency, as Osaka and Hyogo prefectures already have done.

  • A vaccinated New Zealand airport worker tested positive for COVID-19 one day after the country opened a travel bubble with Australia

    Australia and New Zealand launched a travel bubble on Monday, allowing people to travel between the two countries without quarantining.

  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signs 'anti-riot' bill that grants civil immunity to drivers who hit protesters and protects police budgets from being cut

    DeSantis pushed the bill, which he signed Monday, last year in the wake of nationwide Black Lives Matter protests.

  • Millions of Americans are jobless, yet firms struggle to hire

    More than a year into the Covid-19 pandemic, millions of American remain jobless, but even as the economy reopens some employers are finding hiring an unexpected challenge.

  • Dr. Fauci Is Fully Vaxxed, But Won’t Eat Inside A Restaurant

    Now that I’m vaccinated, does that mean I can go about living my best pre-pandemic life? Not so fast — according to Dr. Anthony Fauci.

  • 'Do not travel' list: The US State Department is raising the alert level for most countries due to COVID-19

    The State Department said more than 80% of countries around the world will soon carry its "do not travel'' level. Fewer than 20% carry that label now.

  • Israel logs Indian COVID-19 variant, sees some vaccine efficacy against it

    Israel has registered eight cases of a coronavirus variant first identified in India and believes that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is at least partially effective against it, an Israeli health official said on Tuesday. An initial seven cases of the Indian variant were detected in Israel last week among people arriving from abroad and who have since undergone preliminary testing, the Health Ministry said. "The impression is that the Pfizer vaccine has efficacy against it, albeit a reduced efficacy," the ministry's director-general, Hezi Levy, told Kan public radio, saying the number of cases of the variant in Israel now stood at eight.

  • U.S. COVID-19 vaccine program meets key goal, but India cases and Brazil deaths worry experts

    The U.S. vaccine program stepped into high gear on Monday, with the news that all American adults are now eligible for a shot, meeting a key goal of President Joe Biden's coronavirus team set two weeks ago.

  • Airlines won't call travelers' COVID-19 vaccination proof 'vaccine passports'

    Airlines are adding international destinations but are worried that requirements for vaccine passports could slow the travel recovery.