‘Dire warning’ – post-Covid rebound to create surge in CO2 emissions

Global carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to surge this year as the post-Covid bounce-back reverses last year’s brief decline.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a greater than 5pc increase in emissions, the second largest annual increase in history, eclipsed only by the economic rebound in 2010 after the recession.

It calculates that 33 billion tonnes of CO2 will be released into the atmosphere from energy use, 1.5 billion tonnes more than 2020.

“This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director.

“Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022.”

The grim prediction, which is based on economic growth trends and new energy projects due to come on line, comes despite an expected growth in renewables.

Wind power is expected to grow by 17pc and solar by 18pc, making renewables the source of 30pc of the world’s electricity.

But demand for energy worldwide is growing fast and is forecast to rise by 4.6pc this year, more than offsetting the 4pc contraction in 2020.

Most of the additional needs will met through fossil fuels, particularly coal, demand for which is expected to rise by 4.5pc, outstripping the rise in renewables by 60pc.

Asia, and in particular China, will drive the increase in coal but demand from Europe and the US is also set to grow. Gas output will also rise and only oil will experience a slow year, mainly because of continued uncertainty for aviation.

The forecast comes a day after the World Meteorological Organisation reported all indicators of climate change had worsened in the last year, with the brief reduction in CO2 emissions due to the economic slowdown insufficient to make any dent in the problem.

Later this week, US President Joe Biden convenes a virtual summit of world leaders to address the climate crisis.

Mr Birol said the gathering of countries would be “a critical moment to commit to clear and immediate action”.

The IEA was formed in response to the oil crises of the 1970s to promote co-operation between countries on energy security, research and development and, in more recent years, climate change and the growth of renewables.

Ireland has been a member since 1974.

Online Editors