70% of Covid patients above 40 in both waves, older people still more vulnerable

NEW DELHI: Setting aside concerns that more younger people may be catching the infection and succumbing to it in the second wave of the Covid pandemic, the government on Monday said that there is no significant difference in the two waves but added that more people are needing supplemental oxygen this time round.  

The data presented by three senior-most members of the national Covid-19 task force -- Niti Aayog member V K Paul, ICMR Director General Balram Bhargava, and AIIMS, Delhi director Randeep Guleria -- in a press conference showed that over 70% of patients in hospitals during both first and second wave continue to be those above 40 years of age.

The statistics also showed that the need for supplemental oxygen was higher—over 54% in hospitalised patients in the second wave—while it was about 41 % in the second wave. The need for ventilators however has come down during the second wave with only 27.8% of those admitted in hospitals needing it as compared to over 37% who required it during the first wave.

The findings are based on clinical and demographic details from 9,485 patients across 40 hospitals in India between the month of September-November and March-April. The comparison however has been made based on the higher number of patients in the first wave as compared to the ongoing wave. 

#Breaking: Govt releases data on hospitalised #Covid19 patients in India comparing first and second wave of #COVID19: significantly higher no of patients need oxygen support, no difference in percentage of death, 70 % of the hospitalised patients over 40 yrs@NewIndianXpress pic.twitter.com/tNz3rvoJYo

— Sumi Dutta (@SumiSukanya) April 19, 2021

The figures show that there is a marginally higher proportion of patients in the younger age group despite opening up of activities -- 5.8% of those hospitalised were aged 0-19 in the second wave as compared to 4.2% of those from the same age group in the first wave.

The share of hospitalised patients in the 20-40 age group is also similar, 25.5% in the second wave when compared to 23.7% in the first wave.

“Older population continues to be more vulnerable to be admitted in the hospital in the current wave,” said Bhargava while sharing the data

A higher number of asymptomatic individuals got admitted this year, than a higher proportion of patients admitted with breathlessness, he said adding that asymptomatic and mild illness can be managed at home.

“There is no change in the death rate between the first wave and the second wave,” Bhargava also said.

“Similar trends are being seen across all the states because this is a countrywide data of a national registry data which has been collected of only hospitalized patients, so this is 10,000 hospitalised patients that are being analysed,” added Dr. Bhargava.

Some experts however pointed out that in order to arrive at meaningful inference from this analysis one would need to consider if these data are comparable.

“The rates of transmission at each of these 40 sites need to be considered. A hospital in a district with low transmission is likely to see fewer severe cases, whereas when the transmission is very high a large number of persons will be seeking hospitalization,” said public health researcher Oommen John.

“The numbers that are considered in the denominator of the second wave is just 15% of the total sample size,” he also said adding that if less symptomatic are presenting to hospital during the second wave as per this analysis, why is there an increase in demand for beds, ICUs, ventilators or oxygen?

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