Should You Think About Buying Churchill China plc (LON:CHH) Now?

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

Churchill China plc (LON:CHH), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the AIM over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Churchill China’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Churchill China

What's the opportunity in Churchill China?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Churchill China’s ratio of 30.76x is trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 30.27x, which means if you buy Churchill China today, you’d be paying a relatively sensible price for it. And if you believe that Churchill China should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Churchill China’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

Can we expect growth from Churchill China?

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Churchill China's earnings growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. This should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in CHH’s positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at CHH? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on CHH, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for CHH, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you want to dive deeper into Churchill China, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example - Churchill China has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Churchill China, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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