South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued

GuruFocus.com
·4 min read

- By GF Value

The stock of South32 (ASX:S32, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be fairly valued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of AUD 2.88 per share and the market cap of AUD 13.6 billion, South32 stock gives every indication of being fairly valued. GF Value for South32 is shown in the chart below.


South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued
South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued

Because South32 is fairly valued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be close to the rate of its business growth, which averaged 1.7% over the past five years.

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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. South32 has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.26, which ranks worse than 69% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks South32's financial strength as 6 out of 10, suggesting fair balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of South32 over the past years:

South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued
South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued

It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. South32 has been profitable 5 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of AUD 8.1 billion and loss of AUD 0.033 a share. Its operating margin is -8.56%, which ranks worse than 67% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of South32 at 5 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of South32 over the past years:

South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued
South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued

Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of South32 is 1.7%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -21.3%, which ranks worse than 80% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry.

Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, South32's return on invested capital is -18.83, and its cost of capital is 7.38. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of South32 is shown below:

South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued
South32 Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Fairly Valued

To conclude, The stock of South32 (ASX:S32, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being fairly valued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 80% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. To learn more about South32 stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.