Gold Is Getting Its Shine Back - Here’s the Trade

As gold marches higher, the yellow metal is regaining its shine. Here's a look at some potential upside targets from here.

Author:: Bret Kenwell
Publish date:: Apr 16, 2021 1:05 PM EDT

Gold has finally started looking better on the long side, something bulls have been craving considering the action in other assets and economic data.

The news out of China seems to be helping, where the country opens its borders for multi-billion dollar gold imports.

For instance, bitcoin has been exploding higher - as Paul Tudor Jones rightfully picked as his inflation play in 2020 - while other commodities have rallied too.

Oil, lumber and real estate prices have been moving higher, while economic data continues to flash inflation signs. Lastly, the dollar has been under pressure.

So where has gold been? Thankfully for bulls, the yellow metal has been on the rise lately.

That goes for physical gold, as well as the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) - Get Report and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Get Report.

Can gold continue to shine?

Trading Gold

Above is a weekly chart of the GLD ETF, which is most widely available to traders and investors.

Gold gave investors a standard three-wave decline down to the 21-month moving average, where it firmed up and found support.

Bouncing off that level now, the GLD ETF went monthly-up when it cleared back over that $164.50 area and accelerated back over the 10-week moving average.

From here, it’s now contending with the 10-month moving average, but I’m mostly interested in whether it can actually hold up from this point.

With momentum in all other seemingly inflation-sensitive assets, the hope here is that gold can continue to find buyers. Specifically, I would love for it to hold up over the 10-week moving average and $164.40.

Below could put another test of the 21-month moving average in play.

On the upside, let’s see if the GLD can push higher to the $170 level, clearing the 21-week moving average in the process and putting the 50-week moving average on the table.

If it can go on to clear $175, it could put the $183.50 level in play, which has been stout resistance since the stock failed to hold $180.

Finally, a close below the double-bottom low near $157.50 does not bode well for bulls and could open up even more downside in the GLD ETF.