Skymet forecasts normal monsoon this year

Skymet said there is likely to be good countrywide rainfall distribution at the onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September.. (Photo by Jewel SAMAD / AFP) (AFP)Premium
Skymet said there is likely to be good countrywide rainfall distribution at the onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September.. (Photo by Jewel SAMAD / AFP) (AFP)
 2 min read . Updated: 13 Apr 2021, 04:33 PM IST Leroy Leo

New Delhi: Private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday said India’s southwest monsoon is likely to be ‘healthy normal’ this year at 103% of the long period average (LPA).

Skymet's latest forecast for the season is similar to its preliminary estimates released on 31 January, when it had said that the monsoon this year will be ‘normal’ with seasonal rainfall ending in the upper half of the normal range of 96-104% of LPA.

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The new monsoon forecast has an error margin of 5% lower or higher than what has been forecasted, it said.

Skymet expects plains of north India and some parts of the northeast region to be at risk of receiving deficit rains through the season. Interior parts of Karnataka may also have scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August, it said.

However, there is likely to be good countrywide rainfall distribution at the onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September.

“La Nina conditions prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year presage softening and are expected to remain neutral through the monsoon season. ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) continue to wield a spike mid-way through the season suggesting a fresh phase of cooling, albeit marginal, over the Central Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out," Skymet chief executive officer Yogesh Patil said in a statement.

ENSO, which comprises El Nino and La Nina, are irregular periodic variation in wind and sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific Ocean that affect the monsoon in India. While El Nino causes warmer temperatures in eastern Pacific Ocean and a weak monsoon in India, La Nina does the reverse, causing normal and above normal rains.

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Monsoon rains are important for India’s agricultural sector and in turn the overall rural economy as more than half of the country’s net cultivated area has no irrigation. Monsoon has an impact on the country’s inflation, rural consumption, jobs and industrial demand, and a good monsoon is crucial for the country’s economy.

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