NEW DELHI: In what could be a positive signal for India’s farm sector which performed quite well in 2020-21 despite Covid-19 challenges, the private weather forecasting agency, Skymet Weather, on Tuesday predicted ‘normal’ monsoon this year – the third year in a row of good rainfall which not only drives agriculture and allied sectors but also contributes significantly to overall well being of the economy.
The weather agency said the upcoming monsoon was expected to be ‘healthy normal’ to the tune of 103% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6 mm of rainfall for the four-month period from June to September.
The rainfall to an extent of 96-104% of the LPA is considered ‘normal’ whereas the rainfall between 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’. The Skymet Weather said there was 60% probability of the monsoon rainfall to be ‘normal’ this year with 15% probability of its being ‘above normal’. It completely ruled out the possibility of 2021 being the ‘drought’ year.
In terms of geographical risk, the Skymet Weather expects that the plains of north India along with few parts of northeast region are likely to be “at risk of being rain deficient” through the season. Besides, interior parts of Karnataka may face scare of “scanty rains” in the core monsoon months of July and August.
Overall, the country is expected to see good nationwide distribution of rainfall in June (the onset month of monsoon) and September (withdrawal phase of monsoon).
“La Nina conditions prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year presage softening and are expected to remain neutral through the monsoon season. The ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) continues to wield a spike mid-way through the season suggesting a fresh phase of cooling, albeit marginal, over the central Pacific Ocean. Therefore, occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out,” said Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet while referring to the factors which may lead the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’.
He said, “Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and is oscillating lightly on either side of the zero line. This parameter seems to incline with a negative shift but remaining within the threshold limits. In this case, it may not heave the monsoon spurts but will refrain from harming the season.”
Skymet weather’s monsoon prediction
* 10% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
* 15% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
* 60% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
* 15% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
* 0% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June - 106% of LPA (LPA for June = 166.9 mm)
• 70% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
July - 97% of LPA (LPA for July = 285.3 mm)
• 75% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 15% chance of below normal
August - 99% of LPA (LPA for August = 258.2 mm)
• 80% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
September - 116% of LPA (LPA for September = 170.2 mm)
• 30% chance of normal
• 60% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal