Merkel’s Party Sees Chancellorship at Risk From Nomination War

(Bloomberg) -- Officials close to Angela Merkel are worried that her conservative bloc risks losing the German chancellery in September’s election because of the increasingly damaging battle to follow her at the top of the ticket.

Merkel’s natural successor should, in theory, be the 60-year-old leader of her Christian Democrat Union, Armin Laschet, and he sought to lay claim to the nomination on Monday following the endorsement of the party leadership. But instead of falling into line, his rival, Markus Soeder, unleashed a startling broadside against Laschet’s record and his tactics. He’s likely heading to Berlin on Tuesday to make his case to lawmakers from the two parties.

The chancellor herself is increasingly concerned about the destructive character of 54-year-old Soeder’s attacks, according to a person familiar with her thinking. CDU officials are worried that his campaign could damage Laschet, who is already under pressure because of his poor performance in the polls.

The bloc has “never lost so much voter support in such a short time,” Soeder said in Munich after a meeting of his party’s leadership. “We can’t decouple ourselves from the country’s mood.”

The conservative bloc has slumped in the polls since Laschet was elected leader of the CDU less than three months ago and the mood among voters is darkening further as the government struggles to get the coronavirus pandemic under control.

The CDU/CSU caucus is due to discuss an emergency law to toughen lockdown measures when it gathers on Tuesday afternoon. If Soeder turns up it will shift attention to the increasingly acrimonious battle to be the candidate for chancellor, and risks feeding perceptions that the conservatives are distracted by infighting during a national emergency.

“The problems that we have to solve this week are so big that we shouldn’t focus any longer on internal party issues but on the major tasks that Germany faces today, tomorrow, this week and in the coming months,” Laschet said earlier on Tuesday.

“We’re in the middle of a pandemic and four and a half months away from a national election so the time pressure is there,” he added.

Merkel’s cabinet is due to approve the lockdown law on Tuesday morning before sending the draft legislation to the Bundestag. The bill would shift power to impose Covid-19 restrictions to the federal government from regional leaders to combat a surge in infections.

It would allow the chancellor to impose a 9 p.m. curfew and shutter stores in areas with high infection rations while schools would also be closed in places with the most severe problems.

Read More: Merkel’s Covid Crisis Is Changing the Shape of German Election

The CDU and the CSU traditionally field a joint candidate and the process has almost always gone in the favor of the larger party’s chief. Only two candidates from socially conservative Bavaria have run for chancellor in the postwar period and both lost.

But Laschet’s lack of support with voters has opened the door to Soeder, who is much more popular with voters. The Bavarian premier sought to widen the process beyond the parties’ leadership, which could be in his favor.

“It’s critical that other voices are heard,” said Soeder. “It shouldn’t be 10, 20 or 30 people deciding on their own, you can only win elections with broad support and active party members who are willing to fight.”

In a new survey by the polling institute Insa for the tabloid Bild, Soeder even surpassed Merkel as Germany’s most popular politician, while Laschet lost further ground and ranked only 12th. CDU officials expect that Soeder will use that in the coming days as evidence of his strengths, damaging Laschet in the process. Soeder has insisted it will be several days before there is a decision.

To underscore the challenges facing the conservative bloc in Germany, he said the current election would be the toughest since 1998, when the CDU’s Helmut Kohl lost to Gerhard Schroeder from the Social Democrats. Then as now, the party had been in power for 16 years.

Pressure is mounting to nominate a candidate and ramp up the campaign. The bloc’s lead over the Greens has shrunk to about four points, and the environmental party is set to announce its chancellor candidate -- likely between co-leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck -- next Monday.

“Everyone wants a quick decision,” Laschet said after receiving unanimous support from the CDU’s leadership committee. “Then I’m sure that we have every chance of winning the election together.”

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.