BENGALURU: At 0.48%, the case fatality rate (deaths per 100 cases) in
Karnataka so far this month is the lowest since the outbreak of the pandemic, but the absolute number is increasing after a consistent fall since October.
However, experts advise caution, insisting that deaths arising from the new surge will manifest about a fortnight later.
In absolute terms, there have been 374 deaths in the past 12 days, far more than the whole of March (236), while fresh cases in April stand at 77,865 (March 45,753).
Dr V Ravi, nodal officer for genome sequencing of SARSCoV2 and member, technical advisory committee, said: “Data does not back the hypothesis that the second wave is less severe than the first. The death rate could be 0.48% but deaths reported this month so far would be from cases reported in the last two weeks of March. Deaths have generally been occurring in the second week of infection, sometimes even in the third. So, deaths arising from the surge this month will become apparent later.” He said, people must continue to follow all precautions and get to hospitals early.
Prior to April, the CFR was lowest in March (0.51%), while it was 0.96% and 0.63% in February and January. The rate has been under 1% from November, while the worst month so far has been April 2020.
However, April last year was the time when Covid-19 was still new, and most deaths were attributed to late admission or lack of beds. The actual surge in absolute numbers was seen in July, August and September, before dipping in October. CFR during March 2020 was also high because of the low base (cases).
Dr Giridhara Babu, member, TAC, while pointing out that deaths from cases reported in April will start to show later this month, said one must look at weekly numbers for any sort of planning.
Analysis shows that in the past six weeks, the state has added 610 deaths, compared to less than half of that (241) in the eight weeks between January 1 and February 28, which was much lesser than the eight weeks before that (Nov 1 - Dec 31) which saw 922 deaths.
Both Babu and Ravi cautioned against complacency. “The argument that the virus now cannot cause as many deaths is baseless,” Ravi said.