Ballot-Counting Starts in Ecuador’s Knife-Edge Presidential Vote

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
Stephan Kueffner
·2 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

(Bloomberg) -- Ballot counting has started in Ecuador’s knife-edge presidential election that will determine whether the country remains a U.S. ally with an IMF program, or revives its friendship with Venezuela and Cuba.

The two contenders in the runoff vote offer starkly different policies to confront the economic crisis. Two exit polls published by local media showed a close margin.

Socialist economist Andres Arauz, 36, has pledged to pay a million poor families $1,000 each, with money taken out of the central bank’s reserves. Career banker Guillermo Lasso, 65, says he’ll attract foreign investors and create jobs via policies that help the private sector.

Arauz is a protege of former President Rafael Correa, who shut the U.S. military’s base in the country and forged an alliance with then-Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.

Polls closed at 5 p.m. local time, and the first partial results are expected two hours later.

Before any official results had been published, Lasso supporters in the coastal city of Guayaquil appeared confident of victory, and jumped and cheered. The atmosphere at Arauz’s campaign headquarters in Quito was more subdued.

The country of 17 million people has been struggling since oil prices crashed in 2014, and was already in recession when the pandemic hit. Last year the economy contracted 7.8%, its worst performance since at least the 1970s.

Read More: Why Ecuador’s Runoff Vote Matters for the Bond Market: QuickTake

In the first-round vote in February, Arauz came first with 32.7%, while Lasso got 19.7%. Recent polls showed Lasso having closed that gap, after receiving the endorsement of the majority of the candidates who were eliminated in the first round.

Whoever wins and takes office in May will face a fragmented, potentially hostile legislature and voters who are hostile to austerity measures.

Central bank reform is a key part of Ecuador’s $6.5 billion funding agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Arauz’s pledge to distribute central bank reserves to families would probably mean the end of that deal, said Siobhan Morden, a managing director for Amherst Pierpont. Of the total, $2.5 billion remains to be disbursed.

Ecuador’s recently restructured dollar bonds have rallied in recent weeks, as investors bet that Lasso’s chances of victory were improving.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Recommended Stories

  • Value Stocks Are Ready to Win Again, if the Fed Behaves

    Growth stocks revived when bond yields stopped rising. So long as the Federal Reserve doesn’t renege on its promise to keep rates low, value should perk up, too.

  • "No Reason to Be Bearish" -- Is Wall Street Too Confident?

    Investor confidence is extremely high right now, but is your stock portfolio at risk if you ignore some warning signs?

  • Peru Votes for President After Months of Chaos and Scandal

    (Bloomberg) -- Peruvians are voting for president and congress in a crowded election that will determine whether the nation can restore order after recent political chaos.Polls show the presidential vote is too close to call and no single candidate will have enough support to avoid a June runoff.Hanging over the race is the question of who can govern a country that has had three presidents since November, and where every elected head of state but one since 1985 has either been impeached, imprisoned or sought in criminal investigations. Many voters are also angry after hundreds of well-connected Peruvians received Covid-19 shots in secret, in what’s being called the “vaccinegate” scandal.Former congressman Yonhy Lescano, 62, was leading some major polls on April 4 -- the last day results could be publicly released. He’s promised to share the country’s vast mining wealth more widely and bring down consumer interest rates.Although Lescano is the frontrunner, he only has about 15% support, and his lead is razor thin. He faces 17 other candidates, including economist Hernando de Soto, an investor favorite whose recent surge in the polls triggered a rally in the nation’s bonds and currency.Read More: Peru Vote Key to Bonds After Biggest Sol Rally Since 2008Other candidates with a shot of making it to the second round include Veronika Mendoza, a French-educated former congresswoman who wants the rich to pay a wealth tax; former soccer player George Forsyth; Keiko Fujimori, a former congresswoman who is the daughter of an imprisoned former president; Rafael Lopez Aliaga, a socially conservative businessman wants to drive down “usurious” interest rates; and Pedro Castillo, a community organizer and teacher who says Peru should spend 10% of its gross domestic product on education.Read More: Why Uncertainty Tops Ballot in April 11 Peru Election: QuickTakeThe vote takes place amid a surge in Covid-19 infections and in the aftermath of the worst slump since the 1980s, in which the economy contracted 11.1% last year.On Sunday, Peru’s election authority, ONPE, reported by midday that about 8% of polling stations still hadn’t opened. Most of those voting booths were concentrated in the Lima metro area. RudderlessThe nation of 32 million people has been in political disarray since November when congress ousted Martin Vizcarra despite his high approval ratings at the time.“The bizarre spectacle of a president who was quite popular being forced out in what amounted to a rebellion in congress - for Wall Street and the international community it raises the question: Can anyone successfully govern Peru?” said Brian Winter, the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.With 20 different parties fielding candidates for 130 congressional seats, the new president will have to form a coalition to be able to govern. In that sense, Lescano may have an edge, since his Popular Action party is competitive in the legislative race and his long career in congress gives him some natural allies.“The candidates that have had a less-confrontational stance are the ones that might create a path toward stability,” said Jose Carlos Requena, a political analyst and columnist in Lima. “Whoever takes office will need to create a coalition so they can actually accomplish something.”Read More: Impeached, Jailed, Wanted: President Is a Dangerous Job in PeruPolls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and initial results are expected late Sunday.(Updates 8th paragraph with detail on delayed openings at polling stations)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Ecuador weighs returning to socialism in presidential runoff

    QUITO (Reuters) -Ecuadoreans voted in a presidential runoff on Sunday to decide whether to maintain the pro-market policies of the last four years or return to the socialism of the preceding decade as the Andean country seeks to revive its stagnant economy. Left-wing economist Andres Arauz is offering cash handouts and a return to the socialist policies of his mentor, former President Rafael Correa who is living in Europe and has been convicted on graft charges. Banker Guillermo Lasso is promising open markets and renewed foreign investment to create jobs.

  • Brazil sees 1,803 COVID-19 deaths; Chinese vaccine found 50.7% effective against variant

    Brazil on Sunday recorded 1,803 new COVID-19 deaths, as a large study found that a Chinese vaccine that has become the linchpin in the country's vaccination campaign is 50.7% effective against the infectious new homegrown variant known as P1. Brazil, which has in recent weeks become the global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, saw over 37,000 new cases, the Health Ministry said on Sunday. Sao Paulo's Butantan biomedical institute, which tested and is now producing the CoronaVac vaccine developed by China's Sinovac Biotech Ltd, said on Sunday a study it conducted found the shot had an efficacy rate of 50.7% against the P1 variant, and a less widespread strain known as P2.

  • ‘Stay away’ warnings swept aside by mourners who would not be deterred from ‘duty’ to Prince Philip

    No one was meant to be there. Signs around Windsor called for restraint among the public grieving for Prince Philip, asking people to “not gather at royal residences”. But by lunchtime yesterday, so many people had come to lay flowers for the Duke of Edinburgh that Castle Hill, the street leading to Windsor Castle, had to be blocked off for safety. “There were just too many vehicles and too many people”, said a staff member. “It was too dangerous – we had a few near misses this morning.” Measures are expected to stay in place for the rest of the week, with mourners instead having to take a detour along the high street then on to the Long Walk. “We didn’t expect the visitors’ entrance to be closed off”, said Catherine Crampton, 61, who came from her home in Windsor to lay flowers with her daughter and two granddaughters. “We were able to lay flowers eventually after [walking for] about 10 minutes … We wanted to be here to pay our respects.”

  • Iran calls blackout at underground atomic facility 'nuclear terrorism.' Israeli outlets blame an Israeli cyberattack.

    Suspicion for Sunday's attack fall on US ally Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday.

  • Mom dies in road-rage shooting with her young daughters in the car, Texas family says

    Police are searching for the driver of the other vehicle.

  • Ukraine says 1 soldier killed in east as tensions rise

    The Ukrainian military said that a soldier was killed and another seriously wounded in artillery fire from Russia-backed separatist rebels Sunday, as hostilities rise sharply in the country’s east. As of the reported attack, Ukraine says 27 soldiers have been killed in the east this year, more than half the number who died in all of 2020. Attacks have intensified in recent weeks and Russia has built up troops along the Ukraine border.

  • Canadians are flocking to US border cities to take advantage of a travel loophole - and it's creating lucrative opportunities on both sides of the closed border

    Lucrative niche industries including flying helicopters over the border and international car rides are booming in cities like Buffalo, New York.

  • Without Prince Philip, who will be the Queen’s ‘strengths and stays’?

    Amid her deep sadness at her beloved husband’s death, the Queen will not be grieving alone. At home, in Windsor Castle, she is surrounded by a close circle of friends and confidantes, from whom she will take comfort as she comes to terms with effectively being by herself for the first time in 73 years. From family members to loyal ladies-in-waiting and members of her staff who play a crucial behind the scenes supporting role, the Queen has a trusted network who will now be rallying round to guide her as she mourns the man who has “left a huge void in her life” – as the Duke of York revealed his mother had said, speaking outside the Royal Chapel of All Saints in Windsor, yesterday. It will also be a boost to the Queen that Prince Andrew – long-suggested to be a favourite among her offspring – lives at Royal Lodge, only three miles from the castle and is already a frequent visitor. The beleaguered Duke, who stepped back from royal duties in November 2019 over the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, is understood to have told friends he intends to be his widowed mother's "rock" as she comes to terms with Philip's death. But all four of her children have repeatedly been to visit her, with Prince Charles and Princess Anne shuttling to Windsor from their Gloucestershire homes of Highgrove House and Gatcombe Park, while the Wessexes are at Bagshot Park, 11 miles away.

  • Corporate America is still dangerously delusional about what the GOP has become

    The party of big business has taken to policing corporate America's speech now, and that's not going to change anytime soon.

  • 'I hate this home now:' California couple finally changes the locks on their dream house after previous owner refused to leave for over a year

    Myles and Tracie Albert bought their home with cash in January 2020. But the seller used a legal loophole during the pandemic to remain in the house.

  • Pentagon chief declares 'ironclad' US commitment to Israel

    U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday declared an “enduring and ironclad” American commitment to Israel, reinforcing support at a tense time in Israeli politics and amid questions about the Biden administration's efforts to revive nuclear negotiations with Israel's archenemy, Iran. Austin's first talks in Israel since he became Pentagon chief in January come as the United States seeks to leverage Middle East diplomatic progress made by the Trump administration, which brokered a deal normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states.

  • Police called to Prince Harry, Meghan Markle’s home nine times in past few months

    Police have been called to the Montecito, California residence of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle nine times over a span of many months. The Daily News reports that officers were called four times during their first month living in the home, including three times for “alarm activations” and the other by phone request, according to citing data obtained under Freedom of Information laws. Last month, theGrio reported that a 37-year-old man named Nickolas Brooks was arrested in December after invading the couple’s property twice.

  • Big Brother star Nikki Grahame dies aged 38

    The star, who appeared on the seventh series of Big Brother in 2006, had anorexia.

  • U.S. Army lieutenant files suit against two Virginia police for assault during traffic stop

    A U.S. Army lieutenant filed a lawsuit against two Virginia police officers in federal court over what court papers say was a violent traffic stop, where officers pointed their guns, knocked him to the ground, pepper sprayed him and "threatened to murder him." The suit, filed by Army officer Caron Nazario on April 2 in the U.S. District Court of Norfolk, Virginia, against Windsor policemen Joe Gutierrez and Daniel Crocker, alleges violations to his constitutional rights, and includes assault, illegal search and illegal detention. The incident captured on video comes at a time of heightened awareness over police arrests of minorities and racial justice, in the wake of the ongoing televised trial of former Minneapolis policeman Derek Chauvin following the death of George Floyd, a black man who died in police custody last May.

  • Youngest royals give the Queen reason to smile as she faces life as a widow

    They are the two great-grandchildren that Prince Philip never got to meet. Born just 40 days apart, Princess Eugenie and her cousin Zara Tindall paid special tribute to their grandfather before his death by naming their newborn sons after him. Eugenie’s firstborn, August Philip Hawke Brooksbank, born on February 9, and Zara’s third child, Lucas Philip Tindall, born on March 21, will forever bear the hallmark of their royal heritage. For the Queen, as she faces life as a widow at nearly 95, the babies will bring welcome joy at a time of great sorrow. Having not been able to see much of her elder grandchildren when they were growing up because she spent so much time overseas when the likes of William and Harry were young, the sovereign now relishes family time. Over recent years, she has grown especially close to her youngest grandchildren, the Earl and Countess of Wessexes’ children, Lady Louise Windsor, and James, Viscount Severn, who are regular visitors to Windsor Castle, living just 10 miles away at Bagshot Park. Royal aides used to speak of stepping over tricycles and roller skates as the youngsters would spend precious weekends with “Granny and Grandpa”. The arrival of no less than 10 great-grandchildren over the past decade has delighted the Queen – not least when many are already showing signs of sharing her passion for dogs and horses. Her eldest grandchild Peter Phillips’s daughters, Savannah, 10, and Isla, eight, are already keen amateur riders, along with his sister Zara Tindall’s eldest daughter, Mia, seven.

  • French government disgusted by attack on Muslim centre

    The French government on Sunday condemned the defacing of an Islamic cultural centre in western France with Islamaphobic slogans, and said an attack on Muslims was an attack on the Republic. The tags, daubed on the side a building used as a prayer room in the city of Rennes, were found shortly before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins in France on Tuesday. Interior Minister Gerard Darmanin said it was a disgusting attack against the fundamental freedom to believe in a religion and that Muslims deserved the same protection as any other religious group in France.

  • Mom dies in road-rage shooting with her young daughters in the car, Texas family says

    Police are searching for the driver of the other vehicle.