U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday afternoon, starting a week that will include first-quarter earnings report from some of the largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
Market participants also were weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a “60 Minutes” interview that aired on Sunday.
How are stock benchmarks performing?
-
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.32% slipped 115 points to trade near 33,685, a decline of 0.4%. -
The S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.18% gave up 7 points, or 0.2%, to about 4,121. -
The Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.52% fell 63 points to about 13,836, a loss of 0.5%.
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed out a 2.7% weekly gain, while the Dow rose 2% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite posted a 3.1% weekly rise. The S&P 500 and the Dow booked their third straight weekly gains, while the Nasdaq has climbed for two weeks in a row.
What’s driving the market?
Big banks this week are set to kick off first-quarter earnings season, likely providing a snapshot of the overall health of major U.S. corporations a year into the COVID crisis and also perhaps providing insight into ongoing risks in financial markets.
“I think people will be listening to the bank announcements from the standpoint of assessing what other risks might be out there,” said John Carey, director of equity income U.S. at Amundi Pioneer, pointing to last month’s flameout of Archegos Capital Management, a highly leveraged family office that imploded, dealing stinging losses to several large investment banks.
“Investors will perk up their ears when they’re hearing what management has to say about risk control and loan exposures, especially in prime brokerage,” Carey told MarketWatch.
With stock indexes trading near record levels, Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for Truist Advisory Services, said another focus will be whether the recovery looks on pace to meet investor expectations. “A lot has been priced in, and the market is looking for earnings to confirm that that’s the correct move. The hurdle rate for positive surprises has moved up.”
Lerner thinks that the Fed will remain “supportive” and that, even if bond yields rise, the market should absorb the next leg higher, as long as it isn’t too steep, he said.
“We’ve had a very gradual but steady [and] low-volatility move to new highs,” Lerner said in an interview. “I still think the primary market trend is higher, but, as we head into earnings, I suspect we start trading a little more range-bound. When the primary trend is higher, you don’t want to worry about the hiccups.”
Some strategists fear, however, that stock valuations remain elevated despite uncertainties that include inflation, the success of the vaccination campaign globally and the U.S. tax regime.
Stocks mostly ended at record levels last week, and the Nasdaq Composite, after falling into correction territory in March — defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak — stands less than 2% from its Feb. 12 all-time closing high. Gains for equity benchmarks have come despite concerns about out-of-control inflation and the possibility that President Joe Biden will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% to help fund his $2.4 trillion jobs and infrastructure proposal.
“The investment community is too upbeat, in our opinion, not showing any concern for plausible tax increases being proposed by the Biden administration,” wrote Citigroup analysts Tobias Levkovich, Lorraine Schmitt and Jennifer Stahmer in a research note dated April 7.
“Indeed, all developments are perceived as positive news. Yet, such one-sided views aren’t usually a good starting point,” the Citi researchers wrote.
In Europe, Germany was preparing new COVID-related legislation, which would enable the eurozone’s largest economy to impose national restrictions without regional government approval. England has reopened hair salons and pubs for outdoor drinking after a three-month lockdown.
See: The biggest ‘inflation scare’ in 40 years is coming — what stock-market investors need to know
Powell said on “60 Minutes” that the economy is going to start growing strongly in the second half of the year but emphasized that that rebound shouldn’t lead anyone to believe that the central bank would dial up interest rates in 2021.
Powell said in the interview, taped on Wednesday at Fed headquarters, that the Fed was not likely to raise benchmark rates anytime this year.
Read: Wall Street comes to grips with a Fed that will do what it says
The Federal Reserve chief said the economy “seems to be at an inflection point,” with strong growth coming “right now” and with weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror.
So far, central-bank officials have said they expect a rise in inflation to be transitory and have repeatedly stated that they would be focused on ensuring that the labor market makes a full recovery before considering easing policy.
Which companies are in focus?
-
Shares of Nuance Communications
NUAN,
+16.07% surged more than 16% Monday after Microsoft Corp. MSFT,+0.09% confirmed it would buy the artificial-intelligence company for about $16 billion. -
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
REGN,
-0.19% said Monday that it would ask the Food and Drug Administration to expand the authorized use of its antibody drug among people exposed to the virus who haven’t yet been vaccinated, suggesting potential new preventive applications for the drug, which is already in use to treat COVID-19 cases. Shares fell 0.8%. -
Uber Technologies Inc. shares
UBER,
+2.77% were 3.6% higher after the company said Monday morning that overall gross bookings reached their highest monthly level in the company’s history in March. -
Shares of Ingersoll-Rand Inc.
IR,
-0.99% were off 1.2% at midday Monday, after the diversified industrial company announced a deal to sell Club Car for about $1.7 billion.
How are other assets faring?
-
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
DXY,
-0.02% , a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was down 0.1% at 92.02. -
U.S. crude
CL.1,
+0.42% for May delivery CLK21,+0.42% gained 39 cents, or 0.7%, to trade near $59.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after losing 3% last week. -
The 10-year Treasury note yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.669% was up about 1 basis point near 1.67% ahead of a busy week for the bond market. Bond prices move inversely to yields. -
Gold futures closed down, with the June contract
GCM21,
-0.87% $12.10, or 0.7%, lower, to settle at $1,732.70 an ounce on Comex. -
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index
SXXP,
-0.46% closed 0.5% lower, while London’s FTSE 100 UKX,-0.39% ended down 0.4%. - In Asia, the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP finished 1.1% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI closed down 0.9%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK lost 0.8%.
Mark DeCambre contributed.