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Oil Holds Above $59 as Investors Weigh Near-Term Demand Outlook

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Saket Sundria and Alex Longley
·2 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Oil traded above $59 a barrel as investors continued to assess the recovery in consumption globally.

Futures in New York reversed an earlier decline. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy was poised for stronger growth, but he cautioned that the virus still remains a threat. That’s been highlighted in other regions including parts of Europe, while a second wave in India is overwhelming the health system.

Indian gasoline consumption, meanwhile, rose in March to the highest level in four months as millions of people favored cars over public transport to avoid being infected by the coronavirus.

Oil has gotten stuck in recent weeks, as traders look for more signs of a recovery in consumption from the Covid-19 pandemic. Trading volumes have slumped -- falling below their 15-day average every day last week -- as the market awaits the next move for prices. In the meantime, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to add more barrels from May.

Iran is also a wildcard for the market. Talks between the OPEC producer and world powers on resuscitating a 2015 nuclear accord are set to continue this week after an initial round of discussions, described by a senior U.S. official as a good first step but still short of what’s necessary for a revival of the deal.

“Oil is in wait-and-see mode for the next catalyst,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. “The accelerating pace of vaccination we already see slowly will result in less mobility restrictions and support oil demand and prices.”

Officials in China signaled the country is getting serious about squashing commodities inflation after a blow-out in factory figures last week. The move hit most metals markets on Monday.

See also: There’s a Lot of Unused Oil Stored Around the World: Julian Lee

Further down the line, the outlook for the oil market may be getting weaker, Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in a report. That’s because Iranian supply may return quicker than expected, while U.S. drilling activity has continued to increase. It means price gains later this year could be limited, they said.

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