Russia masses troops on border with Ukraine and tests the West’s resolve over the former Soviet republic

Russia is steadily massing its largest military presence in years near the Ukrainian border — on land and sea — as the Kremlin tests Western support for Kiev and its battles against pro-Moscow separatists less than three months into the Biden administration.

Russia’s motivations for the buildup are still unclear and do not necessarily signal a looming offensive, Ukrainian and Western officials said.

But moving forces from as far away as Siberia — more than 3,200km away — to near Ukraine and onto the Crimean Peninsula has injected new levels of alarm in a region that has been a key flash-point between the West and Moscow since 2014.

In March that year, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, prompting condemnation and sanctions. The following month, war broke out in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas between Russian-allied separatists and Ukraine.

More than 13,000 people have been killed in the fighting since then, according to the UN. The last bout of large-scale combat was more than four years ago, but there have been periodic exchanges of artillery along a front line that has barely budged.

Russia’s sudden military surge appears to be more about sending messages than launching a fresh offensive, analysts said.

For Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Ukraine’s warm relations with the US and EU are a challenge to Moscow’s influence in the region, especially as Biden has vowed to take a harder line with the Kremlin. Ukraine’s aspirations of joining Nato are also seen as a potential threat.

“Russia is testing everyone’s nerves and declaring its position,” said Ruslan Leviev, an analyst who monitors Russia’s military and security services.

“They are trying to show that Russia will not tolerate any sanctions or other actions put in place to pressure them to return Crimea to Ukraine or to change the course of things in Donbas.”

The Russian military began the shift about a month ago, Leviev said. At first, the redeployment was thought to be part of planned exercises. But when the manoeuvres ended in late March, the military stayed.

Tanks have crossed the bridge connecting Russia and Crimea. Trains carrying military hardware from northern Russian regions have made multiple trips.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence has also said it is moving more than 10 naval vessels, including landing boats and artillery warships, from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea, which lines Ukraine’s coast, for “exercises”.

And it has all happened in the open.

Analysts have flagged around 150 videos, mainly from TikTok, showing the Russian military on the move. “It feels like the Russian Ministry of Defence wants these convoys and trains to be filmed,” Leviev said.

“Because then the message about muscle-flexing and the costs of playing with its power will reach Ukraine and Western countries through the media.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia “is moving troops within its own territory at its own discretion, and this shouldn’t concern anyone".

The Ukrainians say there are now at least 85,000 Russian troops positioned between 8km and 40km from the Ukrainian border and in Crimea — more than at any time since 2014.

In Joe Biden’s April 2 phone call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, the US president pledged “unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression”.

The US has sent Ukraine $4.5bn (€3.8bn) in assistance since 2014, including anti-tank missiles. 

The weaponry is kept away from front lines because of US concerns at provoking Russia and the possibility of the weapons falling into the wrong hands.

Fighting in Donbas dropped off after a ceasefire was introduced last summer. But clashes have flared in recent months. Ukraine says that more than 20 of its soldiers have died this year.

Ukraine has also called up reservists in response to Russia’s troop movements.

“What is quite clear for me is that Zelensky and the people around him are seriously concerned about a possible invasion,” said one observer.

Zelensky appealed to Nato for membership in a call with the military alliance. He said it was the “only way to end the war” with the separatists.

But Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin’s chief negotiator, said on Thursday if Ukraine joined Nato then the move would lead to the country’s “disintegration.”

“I support the opinions that also exist inside Ukraine that the start of military action would mean the beginning of Ukraine’s end,” he said.

On Thursday, in a call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin “noted provocative actions by Kyiv, which is deliberately inflaming the situation”, the Kremlin said. 

Merkel “demanded that this buildup be unwound in order to de-escalate the situation”, Germany’s government said.

“Ukrainians view this buildup as a bit puzzling,” said an adviser close to Zelensky. “The idea that Ukraine is about to launch an invasion [into Donbas] is viewed as ludicrous and a pretext for something else.”

© Washington Post