Thread: Will housing market eventually crash?

i see so many miscers saying yes its a bubble and so many miscers saying no you phaggot its the way things are now!

Where you located?

My mom has a rental property with a bum tenant who's paying 25-45% of the rent along with a covid related note with with each payment. That house is in the process of going up for sale as a result, and we're suggesting the gains be moved out of real estate and divided into various equities and investments. If this were to become a trend, it would definitely put downward pressure on the housing market

in the major metro areas (top 10-20 largest cities in the US), highly unlikely IMO. If there's a broader market crash that affects real estate, maybe a slight pullback (think 10-15%), but not anything super crazy

fact is there is simply more demand than there is supply in most these places. It's simple economics

Crash? No. Massive correction? Absolutely

Originally Posted by digital022

Where you located?

My mom has a rental property with a bum tenant who's paying 25-45% of the rent along with a covid related note with with each payment. That house is in the process of going up for sale as a result, and we're suggesting the gains be moved out of real estate and divided into various equities and investments. If this were to become a trend, it would definitely put downward pressure on the housing market

the bubble is bigger in the stock market right now, but it's the same cause, oversupply of disposable income with nothing to spend it on due to the pandemic

The stock market will see a faster correction when the world comes to it's senses, and housing prices will go sideways and maybe a little down for a long time as interest rates rise.

Originally Posted by adamsz

in the major metro areas (top 10-20 largest cities in the US), highly unlikely IMO. If there's a broader market crash that affects real estate, maybe a slight pullback (think 10-15%), but not anything super crazy

fact is there is simply more demand than there is supply in most these places. It's simple economics

Most likely IMO.

Read about it a couple of years back, but single family housing is no longer a normal consumer good. Properties are being purchased by investment groups as an investment, either to flip, or rent out.

So there is a lot of cash out there which most people can't compete against if they don't have equity from a previous property.

If it does go smash regular people will get shafted, while these big investment groups get a government bailout. At least that is what our history supports.

Worth the watch:

Don't think there is such a thing as house market crash. People need places, and there's alway people with money to buy them.

Originally Posted by lnvictus

Don't think there is such a thing as house market crash. People need places, and there's alway people with money to buy them.

but who was 2008

Originally Posted by AlwaysFocus

see post above yours

There was a literal crash, houses that sold for $900K a year before went for 650K the next year. I bought and sold a house at this time, it was great for me because I was upsizing. Houses are returning to those values now 14 years later in a new bubble.

No one here can say for sure, only a select few who manipulate the markets know what and when will happen

Originally Posted by nothingshocking

but who was 2008

People are more careful now..I'd hope.

Originally Posted by GeezersPalace

It's the same subprime lending conditions as it was in 2008, in 2018, they were very very quietly and lobbied under trump to be de-regulated. You can buy a house with 3 percent deposit, which is diaster for the market long term I feel.

It will drop 30-50% like every other property bubble has before that i've witnessed.

Whole US Economy is one big bubble. The job market has dropped badly this year they are just manipulating the numbers with Biden. Things are bad and everyone knows it.

^^^^

Originally Posted by chino3

Crash? No. Massive correction? Absolutely

This. But even with a correction, home prices wont show much change in prices. You will see less offers and being less and less over asking price. Eventually, appreciation and inflation will level out the prices but not necessarily drop the houses prices by too much.

But also, another factor in high prices is lumber/materials cost being at record highs.

There is a supply shortage, so new builds are facing high demand + record high prices to build which is causing huge markups. I dont think lumber prices are a main factor in high overall costs but certainly a factor.

Originally Posted by GeezersPalace

It's the same subprime lending conditions as it was in 2008, in 2018, they were very very quietly and lobbied under trump to be de-regulated. You can buy a house with 3 percent deposit, which is diaster for the market long term I feel.

It will drop 30-50% like every other property bubble has before that i've witnessed.

Whole US Economy is one big bubble. The job market has dropped badly this year they are just manipulating the numbers with Biden. Things are bad and everyone knows it.

Being able to buy a house with low down payment has no correlation to the 08 crash. The 08 crash was wide scale fraud.

Originally Posted by scythiss1

Im located in bakersfield. Houses here were cheap, but ever since covid happened prices sky rocketed.

Imagine paying $400k to live in Bakersfield. lol

I don't think it will "crash" if you're thinking something like 2008. That was triggered by all the sub prime lending BS with poor lending practices. This run up of late is largely caused by lack of available inventory. You have more buyers than sellers. That isn't about to change. Also, materials cost have sky rocketed which is adding to that. If it costs significantly more to build a replacement house, then houses already built also benefit from that.

These are just two of the current contributors, but this is much different than a normal "bubble", particularly like we saw the last time around...