Data collated from the Union health ministry shows that states have on average just over five days of vaccine stocks remaining at their current levels of vaccination, and an additional week’s supply is in the pipeline.
In some states like Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, however, current stocks are for less than two days and in others like Odisha, even with what’s on the way, they’ll have barely enough for four days. This analysis is based on health ministry data on the total number of doses supplied to each state as of 12.30pm on Thursday, the number of doses already used up by them, doses in the pipeline, and the average level of daily vaccination by each state since April 1, when the drive was expanded to include those over 45.
Nationally, at April’s rate of vaccination of almost 3.6 million doses a day, the total stock of about 19.6 million will last five and a half days. There’s an additional 24.5 million in the pipeline – enough for another week. But a step-up in the pace of vaccination would deplete both existing stocks and what’s coming that much faster.
Health ministry officials said the process of re-stocking is ongoing and dynamic with vaccines dispatched in cycles of four to eight days. It is based on daily discussions with all states on their usage and stock positions, they added.
Andhra Pradesh has just 1.4 lakh doses of vaccine stock remaining, or for a little over a day, given that it is has averaged over 1.1 lakh doses a day since April 1. Much will depend on how soon the 14.6 lakh doses that are in the pipeline for the state reach it. Bihar is in a similar situation with 2.6 lakh doses remaining against a daily average vaccination of 1.7 lakh.
Of the large states, Tamil Nadu seems to be most comfortably placed with stocks of nearly 17 lakh doses — and that’s because its average vaccination level in the last week has been a very low 37,000. Most of the other states with weeks of stocks are the smaller ones and Union territories.
Maharashtra has averaged the highest number of daily doses over the week at 3.9 lakh, which means its remaining stock of 15 lakh doses is not enough for four days. Uttar Pradesh (2.5 days), Uttarakhand (2.9), Odisha (3.2) and Madhya Pradesh (3.5) are the other states that have less than four days’ stocks in hand. Of these, doses in the pipeline would leave Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh comfortably placed if they reach them in time (see graph).
The data shows why some states have been crying hoarse that they are facing a situation of vaccine shortage. This analysis takes into account the average daily vaccination over the last week. States, particularly those witnessing a big surge, would ideally want to replicate the highest daily levels they have achieved, if not better them.
That would change the math quite significantly. Maharashtra, for instance, did 5.1 lakh doses on April 2. At that rate, it has less than three days’ supplies remaining — but the supply earmarked for it has been boosted from just over 7.4 lakh on Wednesday to just over 19.4 lakh on Thursday, which if it reaches in good time will give the state greater comfort.
Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan have received the largest number of doses so far, health ministry officials said.
In some states like Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, however, current stocks are for less than two days and in others like Odisha, even with what’s on the way, they’ll have barely enough for four days. This analysis is based on health ministry data on the total number of doses supplied to each state as of 12.30pm on Thursday, the number of doses already used up by them, doses in the pipeline, and the average level of daily vaccination by each state since April 1, when the drive was expanded to include those over 45.
Nationally, at April’s rate of vaccination of almost 3.6 million doses a day, the total stock of about 19.6 million will last five and a half days. There’s an additional 24.5 million in the pipeline – enough for another week. But a step-up in the pace of vaccination would deplete both existing stocks and what’s coming that much faster.
Health ministry officials said the process of re-stocking is ongoing and dynamic with vaccines dispatched in cycles of four to eight days. It is based on daily discussions with all states on their usage and stock positions, they added.
Andhra Pradesh has just 1.4 lakh doses of vaccine stock remaining, or for a little over a day, given that it is has averaged over 1.1 lakh doses a day since April 1. Much will depend on how soon the 14.6 lakh doses that are in the pipeline for the state reach it. Bihar is in a similar situation with 2.6 lakh doses remaining against a daily average vaccination of 1.7 lakh.
Of the large states, Tamil Nadu seems to be most comfortably placed with stocks of nearly 17 lakh doses — and that’s because its average vaccination level in the last week has been a very low 37,000. Most of the other states with weeks of stocks are the smaller ones and Union territories.
Maharashtra has averaged the highest number of daily doses over the week at 3.9 lakh, which means its remaining stock of 15 lakh doses is not enough for four days. Uttar Pradesh (2.5 days), Uttarakhand (2.9), Odisha (3.2) and Madhya Pradesh (3.5) are the other states that have less than four days’ stocks in hand. Of these, doses in the pipeline would leave Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh comfortably placed if they reach them in time (see graph).
The data shows why some states have been crying hoarse that they are facing a situation of vaccine shortage. This analysis takes into account the average daily vaccination over the last week. States, particularly those witnessing a big surge, would ideally want to replicate the highest daily levels they have achieved, if not better them.
That would change the math quite significantly. Maharashtra, for instance, did 5.1 lakh doses on April 2. At that rate, it has less than three days’ supplies remaining — but the supply earmarked for it has been boosted from just over 7.4 lakh on Wednesday to just over 19.4 lakh on Thursday, which if it reaches in good time will give the state greater comfort.
Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan have received the largest number of doses so far, health ministry officials said.
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11 Comments on this Story
 | Sirrichard Branson2 minutes ago before 2020 ,can some "expert" let us know how many people had flu and cold at any point of time of day across india or globe.exact "expert" numbers please,how many died ,survivied, have we had a day in this world ,when nobody had fever?? |
 | Sid dude37 minutes ago So you showed data for current inventory but what about supplies. Instead of speculating, better to ask for data from Union Health Ministry |
| Aj 42 minutes ago if the expectation is that there is going to be 100 days of stock at all points like a ration shop, we are wrong.. vaccine is a scarce commodity that requires care to produce, transport and store.. states have to learn to manage with just in time supply chain for this.. anyone who has run a businesses knows that to manage with a lot of inventory is easy.. but to manage with a lean supply chain needs brains and efforts. babus cannot sit in office and warm the chairs and push around.. needs close monitoring and planning..there is shortage if there isn't vaccine for tomorrow.. if there is 4 days stock it is more than good enough.. |