Motilal Oswal's research report on Coromandel International
Overall Fertilizer industry volumes grew 8% YoY in FY21 on the back of 19% volume growth in MOP; NPKS and SSP volumes grew 17% each for FY21. Urea, which accounted for 53% of the Fertilizer industry’s volumes, was up by 5% YoY in FY21 (refer to Exhibit 1). CRIN’s overall fertilizer volumes grew 11% YoY in FY21 on the back of 35%/20%/16% volume growth in urea/MOP/SSP. NPKS volumes were up 8%, while DAP volumes came in flat. CRIN leads the market in the NPKS Fertilizer segment and commands market share of 23.1% (FY21). For CRIN, NPKS formed 58% of overall volumes in FY21 – NPKS grew 8% v/s industry sales volume growth of 17%. Thus, CRIN lost 191bp market share in FY21.Outlook
We expect a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 8%/10%/13% over FY21-23E. We value CRIN at 17x FY23E EPS to arrive at TP of INR1,030. Maintain Buy.
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