Light at end of the tunnel as vaccines credited with fall in infections

Emerging evidence of the positive effect of Ireland’s Covid-19 vaccination programme is bringing hope that we may finally be on the path out of lockdown.

New figures show a fall in the rate of Covid-19 infection and a drop in patients with the virus in hospital.

HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry said yesterday “while it is too early to say definitively, vaccination is certainly playing a role among healthcare workers and long-term care settings.”

The 14-day incidence of the virus has fallen by 18pc in the last week to around 147.3 per 100,000 and the percentage of people testing positive is down to less than 3pc.

The number of patients with Covid-19 in hospital has also reduced to 226, with 54 in intensive care.

The five-day moving average is at 431 cases a day – down from more than 600 last week.

Significantly, daily new admissions to hospital have slowed to 13 compared to 20 to 25 in recent weeks.

Lockdown measures and people continuing to keep their contacts low are also key in the more optimistic picture.

Professor Philip Nolan, who tracks the virus, told last night’s Covid-19 briefing that overall the situation is potentially improving, but he remained cautious and said the position remains volatile and uncertain.

There could be a lag in cases due to Easter, although this has not materialised as yet, and there is the potential affect of any socialising over the festivities will not be seen until next week.

He said it “looks like it is all going in the right direction but we need to give it another week.”

Schools return on Monday and deputy chief medical officer Ronan Glynn appealed to parents not to go back to the workplace in a trend that could push up transmission.

So far 10 cases of the virus have been found in people who travelled here from abroad and had to undergo mandatory quarantine.

Speaking earlier Dr Henry said there has been a 95pc drop in cases in people over 75 years of age, most of whom have now received at least their first dose of Covid-19 vaccine.

Deaths in the over-65s group also have significantly fallen in recent weeks.

Nobody in this age group was recorded as dying from the virus last week.

This compared to 581 deaths from the virus in this age group in early January.

He said “we know that vaccinations are particularly successful in preventing serious illness and death in the elderly.”

A further seven deaths were reported yesterday and 400 more cases.

Prof Nolan said there has been minimal effect on virus cases so far after the reopening of schools.

While there was a rise in the number of children referred for testing last month, this was due to greater vigilance and this led to more cases being picked up.

There is a rise in testing generally, including through walk in centres in hotspot locations around the country.

This is positive because it is helping to drive down the positivity rate as the spread is brought under control.

Dr Cillian de Gascun of the Virus Reference Laboratory in UCD said there has been an increase in the detection of some new variants with the P1 Brazilian variant cases, rising to 19 with 43 cases of the B1531 variant which originated in South Africa.

There is no evidence that they have affected the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines here, but they have in other countries and it remains a concern.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nepht) decided yesterday that healthcare workers will no longer have to restrict their movements if they are fully vaccinated for two weeks or come into contacted with a person who tests positive.

Dr Glynn said it is hoped this can be extended to the wider population who are fully vaccinated, but guidelines will need to be drawn up for people in the coming weeks.

The R number, which indicates how many people a person who is infected will pass it on to, is now between 0.7 and 1.1, a figure described as positive by officials last night.

Irish Independent