That slide came as the company told investors and analysts on an earnings call that it expected little membership growth this year, and as Amazon.com (AMZN) announced a major expansion of its virtual care offerings.

In his Thursday note, Piper Sandler analyst Sean Wieland analyzed downloads of the Livongo mobile-phone app, a health-monitoring service from Livongo, which Teladoc acquired in the fall for $18.5 billion.

Wieland wrote that there were 80,700 downloads of the app in the first quarter of 2021, down 25% compared with the first quarter of 2020. “Despite the headline y/y download decline, Livongo’s underlying fundamentals appear to be increasingly strong,” he wrote. “We estimate that annual retention improved from 74% in FY18 to 83% in FY19 and 107% in FY20 as inactive members overwhelmingly re-engaged with the platform.”

Wieland said that he expects $568 million in 2021 revenue for Livongo alone, just above the $567 million Teladoc has said it expects Livongo to earn in 2021. “We remain comfortable with TDOC’s $567M revenue projection for standalone Livongo in FY21, following our app informed analysis,” Wieland wrote.

He said that it was still possible that Livongo could beat expectations. “FY21 numbers are achievable, and improved retention/ pricing in the Livongo business have the potential to drive upside to TDOC’s FY25 synergy targets, in our view,” he wrote. “We would be buyers of this virtual care powerhouse on recent weakness.”

Wieland rates Teladoc Overweight, and has a target of $291 for the share price. The stock closed Wednesday at $178.

Of the 29 analysts who cover Teladoc tracked by FactSet, 18 rate it Overweight or Buy, while ten rate it a Hold and one rates it a Sell.

Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at josh.nathan-kazis@barrons.com