COVID-19 second wave: Low case fatality rate emerges as only silver lining as daily cases exceed 1.15 lakh

The COVID-19 second wave is here, and it seems to be spreading faster than before. Just over two months after India reported daily cases at 8,579, the lowest since the pandemic reached its daily high of 97,860 on 16 September, the country breached the first wave peak, on 4 April with over one lakh cases in 24 hours.

On 7 April, the health ministry reported 1,15,736 new cases, the highest daily rise ever since the pandemic hit the country on 30 January, 2020.

However, in what appears to be a silver lining in the second wave, the fatalities have remained comparatively lower than what was seen in the first wave. According to the Ministry of Health and Family Health Welfare, the case fatality rate or CFR, which is the number of confirmed deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases, stands at 1.30 percent on 7 April, 2021.

This is much lower than what was registered at the start of the pandemic and at the height of the first wave in September. India reported the highest case fatality rate of 3.60 percent in April 2020. At the height of the COVID-19 peak during the first wave in September 2020, the CFR was 1.62 percent.

It should be noted, however, that there are limitations to using case fatality rate as a metric for the impact of the pandemic as it doesn't include deaths that may have been caused by the disease but were not reported as such, as well as those who are already infected and may die later due to complications from the disease.

Overall as of 7 April, India has lost 1,66,177 people to the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly one-third of which comes from Maharashtra, the worst-hit state by the pandemic.

The state, which surpassed its highest daily figures of 2020 on 18 March, 2021, reported 55,469 cases on 6 April. The state has shown a nine-fold jump, the maximum increase in the number of active cases in the last two months.

Here's a detailed analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic from 1 April, 2020, to the peak of 7 April, 2021.

NOTE: Some of the rates as well as the dates may differ from what has been reported by MOHFW. The Indian health ministry releases figures at 8 am every day, whereas most COVID-19 data monitors used for the graphic report those figures the day before. So, while the chart says 16 September, those figures were reported by the MOHFW on 7 April. Therefore, the 6 April figures, were reported by the MOHFW on 7 April. There may, however, be some difference as these figures are subject to minor revisions.