Technical indicators hint a rally; RBI policy, Q4 earnings key monitorable: Experts
A positive move in global markets, a drop in bond yields and a slight easing in the dollar index could help the Nifty to move beyond the 15,450 levels, says Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities.
Last week, the Indian market jumped 2 percent rejuvenated by the buying interest post-stimulus package announcement in the US. Robust March auto sales data, record-high GST collections added to the exuberance. However, rising COVID cases in India kept investors in check. Last week, BSE Sensex added 1,021.33 points, or 2 percent, to end at 50,029.83, while the Nifty50 rose 360.05 points, or 2.4 percent, to close at 14,867.35 levels. On BSE Sensex, HCL Technologies, ITC, IndusInd Bank, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Bajaj Auto were top gainers. BSE Smallcap index gained 3.9 percent and the BSE Midcap Index was up 2.7 percent. On the sectoral front, Nifty Metal Index rose 8.6 percent, Nifty PSU Bank Index added 4.7 percent and Nifty Pharma Index rose 4 percent. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 767.03 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 3,965.69 crore last week.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking | After two consecutive weeks of decline, the market witnessed a strong rebound and gained over two percent. This week, the market is likely to take cues from global peers. We believe positive bias could continue as global markets have witnessed renewed buying interest on the back of the stimulus package announced in the US. Also, domestic investors’ mood remains buoyant on hopes of a strong corporate earnings outcome. Meanwhile, rising bond yields and COVID related updates will be key monitorable. The upcoming Q4 FY21 earnings season will begin in a week’s time, so investors’ focus will be shifting back to fundamentals. This time investors’ expectations are rife for a strong earnings season led by healthy demand recovery and low base effect. On the earnings front, revenue growth, margins expansion and management commentary will be key things to watch out.
Rusmik Oza, Executive Vice President, Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities | Indian market pulled back swiftly this week even though it was a short trading week. Nifty50 has once again bounced above the 50 DMA which is a good sign. There is a golden crossover in the Nifty Midcap 100 wherein the 50 WMA has gone above the 200 WMA which signals a long term bullish trend. Going forward, RBI policy and earnings season could be the next trigger for the market. The start of FY22 has been very good and April could likely see more action with the start of the earnings season.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Equity markets started the new financial year on a positive note despite high intraday volatility. Nifty has to hold above 14800 to witness an up move towards 15000-15100, while on the downside support exists at 14700-14600 levels. Going ahead, Indian markets are likely to track global cues after the recent announcement of the infra investment plan by the US president. Further investors would now focus on upcoming quarterly results which would kick start from mid-April. Domestically, concerns over the fast-spreading 2nd wave of COVID in India continues to remain and the fear of possible lockdowns is there. Overall, the markets are likely to remain in a consolidative mode for some time waiting for fresh positive triggers. Hence, investors would do well by gradually accumulating good quality companies on any declines in the market.
Nirali Shah, Head Equity Research, Samco Securities | A noteworthy event to look forward to in the coming week would be the central banks’ MPC meet. It is expected that the RBI will continue with its accommodative stance on the back of uncertainty around the intensity of the second COVID wave. Special attention should be given to the Governor’s comments on the overall economic state. The Q4 result season is also expected to commence next week. Fiscal year 2020-21 taught us a great lesson of staying invested through the thick and thins of the market and we advise investors to keep a 5-7 years’ investment horizon to beat the volatility that the coming year will bring us.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | As per candlestick formation, the market has formed a bullish continuation formation that might send the market to a minimum of 15100/51200 levels. On a weekly basis, the level of 14880/50050 has been broken, indicating a rally. The next level 14,600 would be considered a significant support area. A positive move in global markets, a drop in bond yields and a slight easing in the dollar index could help the Nifty to move beyond the 15,450 levels. Below 14600/49300, Nifty/Sensex would retest the levels of 14400/48700 or 14250/48200. The strategy should be to buy on dips with a stop loss at 14600/49300. The focus should be on commodities, Banks and Pharma companies.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments | If we can cross 14,950, we should be able to resume the uptrend and head towards 15300. If we resist and take a U-turn, we will be sideways and if we break 14500, we will revisit the recent lows of 14200-14250. Hence, we are at a crucial juncture from where a trading opportunity on the upside or downside may emerge.