As the rapid rise in infections in the second wave of COVID-19 is already beginning to overwhelm hospitals in many States, Kerala is anxiously watching its COVID-19 case graph, which seems to have been climbing since March 24.
“The State’s epidemic curve has not shifted yet but it looks poised to climb further. If one were to look at districts, cases have gone up by 11-30% in many northern districts, especially Kozhikode, Kannur, Malappuram, Wayanad and Palakkad. We expected cases to rise post-elections but the graph has already begun to rise,” a public health expert pointed out.
The impact of the ongoing unrestrained election campaigning and mass gatherings all across the State is likely to reflect on the case graph in the coming weeks.
Reduction in severity
Though the State has launched an aggressive COVID-19 vaccination drive to outpace the virus, it will be much longer before the impact of vaccination can reduce transmission. However, vaccination can help in reducing severe illness.
According to a model developed at Imperial College, London, a vaccine that is 90% effective at blocking transmission will need to reach at least 55% of the population to achieve temporary herd immunity, provided the population continues all COVID-appropriate behaviour like masking and physical distancing.
9% vaccinated
Kerala has now vaccinated a little over 9% of its population (first dose) and another 35-38 lakhs may have acquired natural immunity through infection. But it still leaves plenty of un-immune people, especially those in the 18-45 age group, in whom the disease transmission can rise exponentially.
It is hoped that the spectre of dramatic and severe COVID illness and death might be reduced in the second wave, now that a chunk of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated. The burden of the disease will likely shift to the un-vaccinated, 18-45 year age groups and a proportion of this group may still go on to develop severe acute disease and other complications or death.
Public health experts point out that it is thus imperative to ensure that all COVID protocols are maintained by the community and that containment measures are strong, so that the disease transmission does not rise before sufficient coverage through vaccination has been achieved.
Pandemic fatigue as well as a false sense of security that the arrival of vaccines has brought in has been leading people to increasingly relax on masking and physical distancing. Going mask-less puts one at serious risk of exposing oneself to a high viral load and more severe disease.
Interestingly, a lot of people could be picking up the infection from the vaccination centres itself, even though the State government has asked all vaccinated individuals to continue wearing masks (irrespective of dosage and time after vaccination) and the vaccination centres to maintain all infection prevention protocols.
“Entire families are now getting infected and coming to hospitals in various stages of the disease. What we found is that when one person in the family gets infected, the rest of the family rushes to get the vaccination. This is pointless because they would already have been infected and in the process, will pass on the infection to those at vaccination sites. The government should issue strict directives that if one family member is infected, the others may get vaccinated only after completing the quarantine period,” points out Subramanian Swaminathan, Infectious Diseases specialist at Global Hospital, Chennai.