Nationalists on course to win independence 'super-majority' in Holyrood election, poll finds

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Simon Johnson
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Alex Salmond's Alba Party is on course to win six seats, according to a new poll -  Shutterstock
Alex Salmond's Alba Party is on course to win six seats, according to a new poll - Shutterstock

Scottish nationalist parties are on course to win a "super-majority" in the Holyrood election with Alex Salmond's new Alba Party picking up six seats, according to a new opinion poll.

A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times has found three separatist parties would together win 79 out of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats, with Nicola Sturgeon's SNP narrowly winning an outright majority of 65 seats.

In addition, the pro-independence Scottish Greens would win eight seats. An analysis by Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University put the Scottish Conservatives on 24 seats, Scottish Labour on 20 and the Liberal Democrats on five.

George Galloway could enter the Scottish Parliament as his pro-union Alliance for Unity group may take a single seat.

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, said the results showed that voting for smaller Unionist parties like Mr Galloway's would only help the nationalists.

They would also pile pressure on Boris Johnson to drop his opposition to handing Ms Sturgeon the powers for another independence referendum.

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Mr Salmond said: "Arithmetically our argument for the independence supermajority is unassailable. More MSPs supporting independence: what’s not to like?"

The poll is a major boost for him after a separate survey published last week, the first since he unveiled his new party, showed only three per cent support and that it would not win a single seat.

In contrast, the new poll found six per cent backing for the Alba Party. Mr Salmond has said he wants to manipulate Holyrood's complicated electoral system to deliver a "super-majority" for independence, with nationalists voting SNP in their constituencies and for his party on the regional list.

The former First Minister claimed this strategy could deliver a Holyrood chamber with 70 per cent of MSPs backing separation, despite this only being supported by around half the population.

However, Ms Sturgeon has said she would refuse to work with her former mentor after he refused to show contrition for inappropriate behaviour with women. He was cleared of all charges in his trial last year.

Alex Salmond's Alba Party is on course to win six seats, according to a new poll -  Getty Images Europe
Alex Salmond's Alba Party is on course to win six seats, according to a new poll - Getty Images Europe

Sir John said Panelbase's results were "good news" for the Alba Party, though a drop of two per cent in support would mean their tally would fall to one MSP.

He said: "Alba may be on the cusp of recording a creditable performance and coming away largely empty-handed.

"Although most of the seats the party could win with a six per cent tally look as though they would be secured at the expense of the unionist parties, our projection suggests that a couple might otherwise have been won by the SNP or the Greens."

He said the Alba Party was appealing to nationalists who want a rapid timetable for a second independence referendum. Up to 70 per cent of its supporters wants another separation vote within a year compared to 48 per cent of SNP list voters.

While 93 per cent of those who backed Alba believe that Mr Salmond is "a fit person to stand for election", only 13 per cent of SNP supporters shared this view.

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Panelbase surveyed 1,009 adults in Scotland between March 30 and April 1, with Alliance for Unity picking up four per cent.

Mr Galloway has urged Unionists to vote tactically in their constituencies for the party best placed to beat the SNP, then back his party on the list. However, the Tories and Labour are both heavily reliant on winning regional list seats.

Speaking on a Radio Forth election phone-in, Mr Ross said the most important finding of the new poll was "that the smaller parties don't have enough support to win any significant number of MSPs but they do have enough support to allow nationalists into parliament.

"And that's my biggest concern, is that if people don't support the tried and tested method to stop the nationalists, which five years ago was the Scottish Conservatives, then they are actually aiding the SNP or Alex Salmond's nationalists to have our parliament once again dominated by another independence referendum."

But Mr Galloway tweeted: "Why would you pass up the chance to put me in #Holyrood rather than A N Other? The status quo cartel is what put us in this mess. Clean it out."

Keith Brown, the SNP's depute leader, said: "This is the most important election in Scotland's history - every single vote will count, and this poll shows that giving anything less than both votes to the SNP means gambling with Scotland's future."

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