UK coronavirus variant likely circulated undetected in US for months, researchers say

The extra transmissible coronavirus variant first detected in the U.Okay. likely made its approach to the U.S. months earlier than it was found, in accordance with a brand new evaluation by researchers. In reality, the B.1.1.7 variant was likely “silently spreading” in 15 different international locations earlier than being recognized in the U.Okay. in December 2020.

“By the time we learned about the U.K. variant in December, it was already silently spreading across the globe,” Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at The University of Texas at Austin, and professor of integrative biology, said in a news release posted to Eurekalert.org. “We estimate that the B.1.1.7 variant probably arrived in the U.S. by October of 2020, two months before we knew it existed.”

The University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium staff, which revealed an early-release model of its findings in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, analyzed information from 15 international locations and estimated the prospect that vacationers from the U.Okay. unfold the variant to these areas between Sept. 22 and Dec, 7, 2020. The September date was chosen as, in accordance with the information, the B.1.1.7 variant was detected in samples initially collected in Kent on September 20 and London on September 21.

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They primarily based the estimation on the “changing proportion of infections” pushed by the variant in the U.Okay. and inhabitants mobility from the U.Okay. to every of the 15 international locations, which they pulled from Facebook Data for Good.

“By October 22 (a month after the variant was first detected in the United Kington), the chance that 01 of the 15 countries would receive 1 imported case from the United Kington was at least 50%, except for Romania, Portugal, Cyprus, India and the United States, although by November 1, this risk threshold was exceeded for all of these countries,” the researchers wrote.

Using these projections, the staff concluded that international locations with substantial inhabitants motion from the U.Okay. have been likely to have undetected instances of the variant by late October 2020.

“This study highlights the importance of laboratory surveillance,” Meyers stated, in the news release posted on Eurekalert.org. “Rapid and extensive sequencing of virus samples is critical for early detection and tracking of new variants of concern.”

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The staff additionally launched a brand new on-line calculator meant to find out the variety of virus samples that must be sequenced in order to detect new variants once they first emerge.