AHMEDABAD: Was it written on the wall? Perhaps not, but certainly in an academic paper. The
IIM Ahmedabad (IIM-A) campus which had 126 positive cases on campus (including contract workers and those not living on campus) in about a year, recorded 99 cases in just 21 days, averaging about five cases a day. The scenario of the rapid spread of the viral infection was predicted in an
academic paper published in July 2020 by professors from IIM Ahmedabad and
IIT Delhi.
The study ‘Academic Campuses, Super Spreader Events & Pandemics: Simulation Evidence from Reopening Indian Universities with Covid-19’ involving a fictional campus ‘IIM-X,’ was published in the Health Management, Policy and Innovation (HMPI), a practitioner global health journal. It had simulated a scenario where 10 infected persons could infect 78% of those present on a residential campus in the worst-case scenario (where social distancing is not implemented effectively).
The paper had taken a leaf from a few US campuses which had experienced ‘
Covid explosions’ after opening up to the community including professors and students, and had suggested not to open campuses for the time being. Experts pointed out that the India-England match in Ahmedabad worked as a possible super-spreader event. A group of students were part of that event and soon after that the virus started spreading. Experts don’t blame the students but the overall conditions unique to residential campuses for the high number of cases.
While
AMC had put a part of the campus in
containment, sources privy to the development said it’s a continuous ‘containment zone’ even now, as several delivery services refuse to enter the campus, virtually cutting the institute off.
75% are asymptomaticIn a statement from the institute on Wednesday, officials maintained that 75% of those infected are asymptomatic and 90% of those who have symptoms are recuperating after 3-4 days of medication. The focus is also on expanding testing and vaccinating all stakeholders. The institute had also implemented a work from home programme till April 1 and had announced a fine of Rs 1,000 for any person seen not wearing a mask on the campus.