Eight weeks to save the summer, warn experts, as they urge public to ‘hold tight’

Ireland has eight weeks to save the summer amid fears that an increase in socialising could spark a fourth Covid-19 wave.

Public health officials yesterday appealed to people to hold tight and not let their guard down as the lockdown marathon enters the home straight.

It could mean the difference between an enjoyable summer — or the misery of battling another Covid-19 surge through June and July, warned deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn.

By mid to late May the vaccination roll-out will “utterly” reduce our risk from the virus and create a series of options for summer, Prof Philip Nolan told last night’s Covid-19 briefing. “Protection is on its way and we just have to hold tight for that four- to eight-
week period,” he said

Prof Nolan cautioned that people should not increase their contact with others in the coming weeks — because the “risks are enormous”.

This was echoed by Dr Glynn who last night said: “There is a critical window over the next eight weeks, where any significant increase in close contact is likely to lead to a significant fourth wave of infection — in the range of that experienced in January.

“We can and should be optimistic for an enjoyable summer ahead — but in the meantime, we have to continue to work together to prevent a further wave of infection as we accelerate vaccination across society and maintain our health services.”

There are fears that different households will meet up over Easter. They asked people who insist on meeting up to do so outdoors, to wear masks and to physically distance.

Concern is particularly strong that there will be a repetition of Christmas where vulnerable people will mix socially — and end up seriously ill from the virus within weeks of getting the Covid-19 vaccine.

Earlier Prof Nolan said that the current situation is stable but precarious.

There were six more deaths yesterday and 411 new cases, though these numbers are expected to rise.

Prof Nolan said that the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital had declined to 297 and there were 67 seriously ill with the virus in intensive care.

The numbers in intensive care have been declining very slowly and as cases remain relatively static around 20 to 25 people have been admitted to hospital a day.

However, deaths are down to single figures and the link between case numbers and fatalities has been broken.

The R number — which should be under 1 — is at 1.0 to 1.3, exacerbated by the more infectious UK variant which is dominant here.

He said that if the epidemic is growing, case numbers would double in just 35 days.

Outlining potential scenarios he said a slow- to medium rise in social contact could push up the spread of the virus, causing a potential half-million cases from next week to September.

Pete Lunn of the ESRI said its survey showed that biggest risk of behavioural change is the rise in people visiting different households. Around 150,000 to 250,000 people are visiting other homes, not wearing masks, and staying for more than an hour.

 Meanwhile, the HSE is opening six more walk-in testing clinics in areas of high incidence today and tomorrow.

They are located in Coláiste Eoin, Cappagh Road, Dublin; Quay Street car park, Ballbriggan, Co Dublin; Crumlin GAA clubhouse, Dublin; O’Mahony’s GAA club in Navan, Co Meath; Town Hall, Ballinasloe, Co Galway; and Athlone Regional Sports Centre, Co Westmeath.

The test is free and they are open to people over 16 without symptoms who want to check if they have the virus.

Elsewhere the HSE has appealed to GPs to help find people who are at very high risk or at high risk of Covid-19 disease due to underlying illness.

In a letter to GPs, Dr Colm Henry, chief clinical officer of the HSE, said it was now evident that the very high risk group “will not be fully identified through the acute hospital system” and GPs have been asked to help identify them.

Irish Independent