LUCKNOW: The rapid rise in Covid-19 cases over the week with infections remaining above 400 in the past three days indicate that the second wave of the pandemic has arrived in the city, say doctors.
Holding high complacency in public behaviour that ushered in post January and decline in the herd immunity developed during the peak months of August and September last year responsible for the surge, experts said the cases may touch 1,000 again in the next two weeks if people continue to behave irresponsibly.
However, the good part is there are no signs of community spread yet as contact tracing has been able to detect the source of infection.
Sample this: From 19 cases on March 14, the single-day count increased to 499 on March 29 — nearly 26-fold rise in 14 days. In fact, the positivity rate — samples found positive in every 100 test — leapt from 0.37 to 1.69 during this period. The positive rate in previous months was 4.9 (October), 3.5 (November), 2.8 (December), 1.5 (January) and 0.3 (February).
Prof Anil Kumar Gulati, former head of the microbiology department, IMS BHU, said, “High positivity and rapid increase in cases are clear indicators that the second wave has hit Lucknow.”
One of the reasons is that the herd immunity developed among people in the first wave has declined, he added.
“This means, a large section of people developed antibodies and generated immunity against the disease after getting exposed to the virus during the peak in August-September. But many among them are asymptomatic. Collectively, it helped in developing the herd immunity in some localities, which checked further transmission of the virus. However, this immunity is now on the decline because antibodies last for just 3 to 4 months, which is making the community vulnerable to reinfection,” he said, while explaining the driving force behind the second wave.
Echoing similar views, head, medicine department, KGMU, Prof Virendra Atam said, another big factor is complacency among people that crept in when the cases declined drastically in January. “As people are showing utter disregard to safety protocols, the virus has found a door to walk in again,” he said.
“Till 60-70% percent of the population doesn't get vaccinated with two doses, people must follow Covid-19 precautions,” he underlined.
CMO Dr Sanjay Bhatnagar also agreed that the second wave has arrived. “We are taking all the measures. 3Ts – test, trace and treatment — are being done on a war-footing, besides strict implementation of containment zones. “On an average, we are testing over 12,000 people daily during contact tracing and random sampling. That’s why cases are being detected easily and numbers are high,” he said.