Power demand to surpass pre-Covid levels in Q4

NEW DELHI:  Despite partial lockdowns in a few regions due to a resurgence in Covid-19 case counts, analysts expect that India’s power consumption—a key indicator of overall economic activity—will be above pre- Covid levels in the last quarter of this financial year (Q4FY21). While power consumption had slowed a little during February to see a marginal y-o-y growth compared to the previous two months, it has shot up again during the first few weeks of March, industry data showed.

According to a repor t released by India Ratings and Research, India’s electricity demand is expected to be higher year-on-year in the fourth quarter. “In February 2021, the all- India energy demand increased 0.2% yoy to 104.6 billion units (January: up 5 %; December 2020: up 4.9%),” the report noted, also observing that India’s electricity demand had recorded a new high of 189.6 gigawatts (GW) in January. “The energy demand over April 2020-February 2021 was lower by 2.8% on a yoy basis (9MFY21: down 3.9% yoy; 1HFY21: down 8.7% yoy; 1QFY21: down 15.9% yoy),” the report added.

The report indicates a steady improvement over the past few quarters, with more lucrative commercial and industrial demand recovering and catching up with household consumption again. While official data is not yet available for the entire month of March, industry data indicates that power consumption pan-India recorded a sharp spike of 16.5 per cent in the first 12 days of the month, recording 47.67 billion units, compared to the corresponding period a year ago, when the figure had stood at 40.92 BU.

In terms of power demand met, the highest supply recorded in a day, during this 12-day period the month was far ahead of the highest record of 170.16 GW in all of March 2020. During March 1-12, 2021, peak power demand met touched a peak of 186.03 GW on March 11, 2021, recording a growth of 9.3 per cent over March 2020. For the full month of March, pan-India power demand growth is likely to come in at double digits, far higher than the 98.95 BU recorded in March 2020, say analysts.

India’s power demand only began recording year on year growth from September this financial year, since the first half had been decimated by the pandemic. After a gap of six months, power consumption recorded a 4.6 per cent year-onyear growth in September and 11.6 per cent in October.