IndiPosted at: Mar 27 2021 10:45PM Even one seat for BJP in TN Assembly election will be a whopping victory: Raman
By Radhika Tiwari
New Delhi, Mar 26 (UNI) From CAA to Delhi riots to farmers’ agitation, south of the Vindhyas was watching the BJP and under the present circumstances, if the saffron party manages to win even a single seat in the April 6 Assembly election in Tamil Nadu, it will be a whopping victory for it at the cost of the AIADMK, remarked journalist and author Papri Sri Raman.
"For the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the seat-sharing deal may well work like the JDU-BJP deal in Bihar but now with late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is no more, the BJP may want to make inroads into the vote bank of two leaves symbol party, resulting in considerable reduction in vote percentage for the former. Even if the BJP wins one seat, it will be a whopping victory for it at the cost of the AIADMK," said Ms Raman, who has covered Tamil Nadu elections for about 14 years. She shared her views on the performance of political parties in the election in TN, star-performers, and her book on Jayalalithaa, with UNI in an exclusive interview.
The counting of votes polled in the election will be taken up on May 2.
The main contest is between AIADMK, which is hoping for a hat-trick and the Opposition DMK wants to return to power after 10 years. This is the first election in the state without the two Dravidian stalwarts Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi.
Answering a question on the performance of each political party, Ms Raman said, "The DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) under MK Stalin has done extremely well in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. His hand of friendship for his alliance partners has fetched results then for the party."
"Look at the 2019 Lok Sabha results, it won all the 20 seats it contested, its ally Congress emerged victorious in 8 of the 9 seats, its left allies won all their seats and all its small allies won the seats they contested."
"As many as 38 seats out of 39 went to the UPA-led Alliance. Only one seat, that in Theni, went to Raveendranath, OP’s son from AIADMK out of the 20 seats it contested. This is an indication that although the AIADMK has not done badly post-Jaya, its choices are not popular. Though not in a pre-poll alliance, the DMK may ally with more small parties after the results, to form a government that will last till 2026."
Whereas, the Bharatiya Janta Party, in 2014, won the Kanyakumari Lok Sabha seat and lost in 2019. In the 2016 assembly poll, it contested all the 234 seats and drew a blank.
She also separated the voters in Tamil Nadu from the rest of the country saying, "The voter here is not an upper-class voter. The voter is educated. It is working-class and technology-savvy. Poverty in this state is relative, it cuts across caste. The voters' need is great and myriad. The Tamil Nadu voter listens to every bit of political gossip, watches every politician keenly, has memory like the elephant and remembers every past good deed and bad. Marinated in MGR, Sivaji Ganesan theatricals, the rhetoric does not sway their minds."
When Tamil Nadu votes, people make a very calculated choice, keeping faith in the tested and tried. Their decision to alternate parties every five years was to keep powerful politicians like their beloved Amma and Kalaignar in their places. It was a very ‘thought out’ decision, she added.
Of the many developments that took place over the past few months, one that took everyone by surprise was Sasikala's exit from the political arena that too be at such a crucial time. To which Ms Raman explained, "Sasikala's release from jail in Bengaluru in January end made most Tamil Nadu watchers suspicious. Although Jayalalithaa remained CM until her death, the assets case finally went to the Supreme Court which sentenced Sasikala to four years in prison and ruled, she can never be a chief minister, nor contest elections in the near future. That way, the Apex Court put a check to any ambition she might have harboured.
"A certain section of Amma followers believe, Sasikala was instrumental in bringing ignominy to Jayalalithaa's rule, she betrayed her trust and was responsible for Jayalalithaa's jail terms and her health crisis that led to her death. So the question is naturally asked who benefits from a free Sasikala in Chennai? It was interesting to see Sasikala announce on her return, that she 'will not be in politics'. Only last week, however, media reports said, O Panneerselvam, the AIADMK Deputy Chief Minister, is not averse to Sasikala's return to the AIADMK."
"OPS was twice Jayalalithaa's proxy CM and one of her most trusted lieutenants. So it is clear now that Sasikala is being seen as someone who can help OPS party AIADMK to retain power."
"Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniwsami is not happy about Sasikala returning to AIADMK. Sasikala became AIADMK General Secretary after Jayalalithaa's death, she had no position in the party as long as Jayalalithaa was alive. She remained as AIADMK leader for nine months, after which she was unceremoniously expelled from the party in September 2017. It was, however, more difficult for the party to oust the hundreds of AIADMK members loyal to TTV Dinakaran, Sasikala's nephew."
"Though Dinakaran now heads a new party, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, the AMMK is a BJP ally indirectly and the grapevine says, it may soon merge with the AIADMK. It is clear now Sasikala's freedom will only increase the rift between OPS and EP, benefit her coterie and ultimately help reduce the AIDMK's influence. The taint of corruption notwithstanding, the BJP is not averse to backing Dinakaran," the journalist-cum-author further added.
In the year 2016, soon after the late actor-turned-politician, Jayalalithaa emerged victorious in the state assembly elections for the second time, Ms Raman started working on a pictorial biography of hers, later titled 'Jayalalithaa - a journey'. "Post her win, the street festivities were something to be seen to be believed. She was a charismatic woman and had to be an extraordinary politician. I and my publisher friend, Renu, thought, there must be something more than just a politician in her. That’s when the thought of a biography came to our minds and I started reading up on her. There were so many beautiful photographs of her on the net that it was too tempting – not to do a picture book on her would have been injustice," she shared.
Ms Papri also thought that just to badger on the single point of corruption when bigger corruptions were happening all around would have been unfair. "There had to be something special about her for millions to regard her as ‘Amma’. We wanted to give her a beautiful book. That did not happen. As we began shaping the book, she became ill and never recovered," she added.
Fondly referred to as 'Amma', Jayalalithaa won the June 2015 RK Nagar byelection despite the fact that a year earlier, On 27 September 2014, a Special Court had convicted four people, including Jayalalithaa, in a corruption case. The charges were ‘Misuse of power’.
"In India ‘Misuse of power’ is a grey area, what is misuse for one politician is greatness for another," said Ms Raman.
Though not her first time behind bars, Jayalalithaa was sentenced to four years in jail and a Rs 100 crore fine. The Supreme Court had granted her bail after 21 days, in October 2014.
In May 2015, Jayalalithaa was acquitted of the charges by the Karnataka High Court and she won the bypolls by more than 1.5 lakh votes over her CPI rival.
Ms Raman further presented a vivid picture of Jayalalithaa's transition from a performer to everyone's beloved 'Amma'. "I quote Oscar Wilde in my book, ‘success is a Science’. Jayalalithaa recognised the conditions and got results. The most difficult part was tracing her rise in the ADAMK (as it was then called) from 1983 to 1987. Records are tardy. And consequently, the phase between 1981, from the days of Jayalalithaa’s last films to her becoming chief minister in 1996 was the most fascinating for me as a journalist."
"As much as 60 per cent of MGR voters were women; MGR was astute, he realised he had a winner in Jayalalithaa. He had a friend Indira Gandhi as an example; he chose a woman without a father, husband or son. Jayalalitha had 15 years of political lessons before 1996; one term in 1984 as a Rajya Sabha member. This journey from being the top film star with 27 films with MGR to the feisty and glamourous MLA from the Bodinayakkanur in 1989 is a very engrossing tale. Her transition to Amma was more gradual, based on the development she steered during her tenures as CM," Ms Raman explained.
A piece on Tamil Nadu politics would be incomplete without the mention of its cinema as Kollywood has played a significant role in the state since the time of the British Raj.
The state politics here has revolved around three charismatic figures namely, DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi, MGR and Jayalalithaa. And while every political party here used star-power to captivate voters, Bharatiya Janta Party has distanced itself from roping in any.
"What is star power? Can it be translated into votes?" asked Ms Raman, "You look at the statistics all-India, how much have film stars succeeded as politicians? Most film stars were nominated to Rajya Sabha, which is the platform for recognising art and culture. Have Sivaji Ganesan or Amitabh Bachchan been able to translate their huge fan following into votes? No. Only MGR some 50 years ago managed to turn fan clubs into political support to build the AIADMK, because he had been in politics for 25 years before that. Jayalalithaa inherited the party, and it was not her fan club that she used to build the AIADMK. After MGR, it was NT Rama Rao who built the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). That was it, these were one-off phenomena. Times have changed, neither Amir Khan nor Rajinikanth can do it. So BJP courting star power at poll time is a wasteful exercise, especially in Tamil Nadu, Bengal etc."
"Rajinikanth may be close to the PM but this is not the 1990s when his fans went gaga with the way he lit his cigarettes. Cigarettes are passé now. Rajinikanth cannot convert even his hardcore fans to pro-AIADMK votes, he has always opposed Jayalalithaa and his fans cannot vote directly for the 20 BJP seats, they will have to vote for AIADMK in 214 seats, the Rajini numbers simply aren't good enough for a bouquet for the PM," she added.
70-year-old superstar Rajinikanth had announced his plans to launch his political party in January ahead of the Tamil Nadu assembly elections in 2021. However, days ahead of the launch, he cancelled the plans, citing health reasons.
Kamal Hassan is yet another actor presently campaigning to win the minority-dominated Coimbatore South constituency.
However, expressing her views on the relevance of late CM Jayalalithaa, Ms Raman thinks otherwise. "Jayalalithaa’s charisma will prevail historically. Her charisma worked for the AIADMK as long as she lived. This has nothing to do with the party and unlikely, it will help AIADMK win. Tamil Nadu is where the parrot (kilee) picks the card of fate," she added.
UNI RHK CS SHK2245