Defeats can represent a turning point if the lessons signal the way to a brighter future. A year from now we may reflect on Belgrade as a significant moment in the lifespan of Stephen Kenny’s tenure.
Any temptation to declare that three at the back is here to stay has to be tempered by the number of informed voices who reckon it will not be employed against Luxembourg tomorrow.
Perhaps what Serbia may represent is a broader transition to a new era of flexibility, where a horses-for-courses approach is taken to each fixture as opposed to a rigid preference laying out the side regardless of the opposition.
Kenny did make changes during the autumn, abandoning his initial 4-3-3 to a slightly more conservative 4-2-3-1.
The idea of deploying three at the back has been floated at various times but a manager who has favoured a defensive four for pretty much all of his lengthy career seemed reluctant to go that route.
It changed this week, an ambitious move seeing as it was the shortest window of preparation for a game of substance in recent memory with cramming three games into this break as a consequence of last year’s Covid cancellations removing at least 24 hours of the countdown.
Anderlecht’s Josh Cullen explained the complications presented by a Wednesday match following on a hectic club weekend.
“There wasn’t a lot of work that we were able to do,” he said. “The squad met up on Sunday. I met up with the squad on Monday so, yeah, not days and days and weeks on the training pitch. There was a lot of information about the system and the way we wanted to go about the game crammed into a couple of days working together.”
Ireland lost the match, but it would be hard to pinpoint the tactics as the central reason for that. Personnel decisions will be scrutinised, but while leaving out Shane Duffy was a major call, he is not really suited to a back three.
He might have won the headers that Ciaran Clark failed to, but there is a reason the Derryman has played his best football in the heart of a back four in teams with a compact shape.
Switching to a three makes the pitch bigger for the defensive players. Brighton primarily fielded four at the back under Chris Hughton but Graham Potter came in with other ideas and Duffy’s standing at the club changed.
Deploying the right-footer on the left of the three is a non-runner so he could only really operate in the roles filled by Seamus Coleman and Dara O’Shea on Wednesday. However, he wouldn’t be able to cover ground like Coleman, while O’Shea is better on the ball and you need the sweeper to possess that attribute. An out-of-form Duffy, short on match practice, would have found it very hard in general play.
That doesn’t mean he’s finished. He could do a job there if fully tuned up, but it’s more plausible that any recall for the 29-year-old would be tied in with a reversion to a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3; especially the former as it would provide better protection to avoid the side getting stretched. It might even happen during this window.
Kenny will have an entirely different equation to consider against Luxembourg. They are no mugs and it’s dangerous to assume they will sit off – it’s less than two years since they came to Windsor Park and had 67pc of the possession against an admittedly understrength Northern Ireland. In their last three games (Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Qatar) they had more of the ball.
But the expectation is that green shirts will be on the front foot and, in that context, the third centre-half would prove unnecessary. Certainly, the logic for pairing Cullen and Molumby at home to a lower-ranked side in that system would be questionable and the latter would likely be vulnerable to a ball player like Robbie Brady or the attacking runs of Jason Knight in support of Alan Browne.
It may even be the case that the approach is a 4-3-3 with James Collins or Shane Long introduced as a central number nine with Callum Robinson and Aaron Connolly either side providing they are fit. “We do have to be tactically flexible,” asserted Kenny.
The counterpoint view is that international gatherings are tight so it’s better to have a tried-and-trusted formula that doesn’t require refreshing. Giovanni Trapattoni favoured that approach. Martin O’Neill was similar although he was more off the cuff in terms of team selection with players left guessing and he did play the odd wildcard. Mick McCarthy did try 3-5-2 in Switzerland but couldn’t get the balance right.
Kenny looks set to place trust in the versatility of a younger squad and the benefit of this week may be readying them for scenarios down the line. He can’t afford to drop points against Luxembourg so it’s plausible he will revert to what he knows best but the relevance of this week may become apparent further down the line.
Ireland play Portugal away and both Azerbaijan and Serbia at home in the space of seven hectic days in September. The ability to chop and change at short notice will be necessary to get through it. Belgrade may prove to be a window to the new normal.
