GDP growth expected at 12.8 per cent in FY22:  Fitch Ratings

NEW DELHI:  Fitch Ratings has revised its forecast for India’s GDP growth for the next financial year beginning April 1 to 12.8 per cent from its previous estimate of 11 per cent. According to the ratings agency, India’s recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected.

In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said the revision comes due to “a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance, and better virus containment.” “India’s second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent,” the agency observed. 

“Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory.” GDP growth had surpassed the pre-pandemic level in the December quarter, growing at 0.4 per cent year-on-year, after having contracting 7.3 per cent in the previous quarter. “The rapid pace of expansion at the end of 2020 was powered by falling virus cases and the gradual rollback of restrictions,” Fitch noted.