Assam Election: CAA unlikely to be major poll issue as not all see Act detrimental to state, say experts

In December 2019, a vast swathe in Assam erupted in vociferous protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, fuelling speculation about the future of the BJP-led coalition government in the state. Almost one-and-a-half years later the issue has not fizzled out with the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) relaunching the agitation against the controversial law and the Opposition Congress leaving no stone unturned to make it a major issue for the forthcoming Assembly polls in the state.

This apart, the BJP has declared in its manifesto for West Bengal that CAA would be implemented in the ‘first cabinet meeting’ which was followed by a statement within a few hours from Ranjit Das, BJP's Assam president, that the law would be made applicable in the state. However, the party’s manifesto for Assam does not have any mention of the law.

Ideally, these developments ought to have triggered another bout of intense agitation in Assam against the law. BJP and its allies, especially the AGP, should have been severely on the back foot with the least chances of winning the elections. However, on the eve of the polls, the situation has panned out differently which could spring a surprise to outstation observers and but not to anybody conversant with the politics and social milieu in the state.

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The protests against CAA were mostly concentrated in areas in eastern Assam and Guwahati with an Assamese majority, but large parts in the western zone witnessed only sporadic outbursts.

This phenomenon is explicable in terms of the distribution of Bengali speaking citizens and illegal immigrants in the state. Muslims of Bengal origin are in greater numbers in the central and western districts (lower Assam) of the state where the indigenous communities perceive them as a bigger threat than the Hindus. Whatever polarisation that has happened currently is mostly in these regions of the state.

“Elections are never fought on a single issue. For voters, it begins with individual benefit, then family and state issues. CAA has created confusion over whether it is good or bad, and so it is not as important as the issues of health or infrastructure. There was no single narrative over the CAA, as a result of which people have not been able to form a distinct opinion over the new law. Not all communities seem to have been convinced that the law would be detrimental to the interests of the state,” said Professor Nani Gopal Mahanta.

He refers to the results of the general elections of 2019 when the BJP won nine out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam to prove his point.

Certainly, CAA was interpreted in multiple ways by different communities in Assam.

Neither the Opposition parties nor the civil society groups such as AASU, AJYCP or KMSS, which had spearheaded the agitation, were able to explain the adverse implications of the law to the people which only benefitted the BJP. By and large, the majority of the participants in the areas where the anti-CAA movement was intense were from the mainstream Assamese communities.

To a significant extent, the BJP has succeeded in sidelining the CAA and portraying the Muslims of Bengal origin as the biggest threat to the indigenous communities in Assam.

Senior party leader Himanta Biswa Sarma had repeatedly referred to the increasing clout of AIUDF chief Maulana Badruddin Ajmal as an issue that could spell danger for Assam. Other party leaders have underscored the development in the state during the last five years with a commitment to put an end to floods that have recurrently devastated the state.

A large section of people, especially the low-income groups, has also been swayed by the recent schemes unveiled by the BJP-led government in Assam.

“It is true that many people have been influenced by government schemes. People from low-income categories always see immediate material benefit. The aggressive sentiment that was generated by the agitation against CAA has diminished,” explains Professor Chandan Kumar Sarmah, who teaches sociology at Tezpur University.

Professor Sarmah drew a parallel with the agitation against the 2000 MW Lower Subansiri hydel project in Arunachal Pradesh which rocked some districts in eastern Assam several years ago. The agitation petered out after months of protest during which the construction of the project was put on hold by the government. It was resumed after the movement subsided but there were no protestors on the street again.

The jumbo project has been accepted by the people despite the dangers it poses to the districts located in the downstream region of Assam.

In the Brahmaputra Valley, emotions have always played a vital role in motivating people to take the plunge into agitations which had been discernible on numerous episodes after Independence.

The issues that triggered the protests had always been genuine although some of them such as illegal immigration has remained unresolved to date. All political parties have reaped the benefits from this issue which is now accepted as a reality.

So, it was not a big surprise when the BJP made an about-turn on its assurance during the previous Assembly polls to protect the ‘jati, mati and bheti’ in Assam by supporting the CAA.

The author is a senior journalist in Guwahati