FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

GuruFocus.com
·3 min read

- By GF Value

The stock of FutureFuel (NYSE:FF, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $13.43 per share and the market cap of $587.5 million, FutureFuel stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for FutureFuel is shown in the chart below.


FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

Because FutureFuel is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.

Link: These companies may deliever higher future returns at reduced risk.

Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. FutureFuel has a cash-to-debt ratio of 534.68, which ranks better than 89% of the companies in Chemicals industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks FutureFuel's financial strength as 9 out of 10, suggesting strong balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of FutureFuel over the past years:

FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. FutureFuel has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $204.5 million and earnings of $1.08 a share. Its operating margin of 10.92% in the middle range of the companies in Chemicals industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks FutureFuel's profitability as fair. This is the revenue and net income of FutureFuel over the past years:

FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of FutureFuel is -9.4%, which ranks worse than 89% of the companies in Chemicals industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 14.7%, which ranks better than 72% of the companies in Chemicals industry.

Another way to evaluate a company's profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, FutureFuel's ROIC was 20.34, while its WACC came in at 7.24. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of FutureFuel is shown below:

FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
FutureFuel Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

In conclusion, The stock of FutureFuel (NYSE:FF, 30-year Financials) is believed to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is strong and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks better than 72% of the companies in Chemicals industry. To learn more about FutureFuel stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here. To find out the high quality companies that may deliever above average returns, please check out GuruFocus High Quality Low Capex Screener. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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