Kerala Assembly Election 2021, Ernakulam profile: Congress' TJ Vinod retained seat in 2019 bypoll

Ernakulam Assembly Election 2021 | The Ernakulam Assembly constituency, a Congress stronghold, is home to a sizable Latin Christian community.

The Ernakulam Assembly constituency will vote on 6 April, 2021, along with the rest of Kerala.

Past election results and winners

LDF-backed candidates have won the seat only twice since 1957: during the 1987 Assembly election and the 1998 bypoll.

Congress leader Hibi Eden won a second consecutive term in 2016 by a margin of 21,949 votes. Eden had polled 59,919 votes in the 2016 polls while CPM runner-up M Anil Kumar got 35,870 votes.

When the seat fell vacant after Eden’s election to the Lok Sabha in 2019, Congress fielded Kochi Corporation deputy mayor TJ Vinod in the bypoll. Vinod emerged victorious, defeating LDF-backed Independent candidate Manu Roy by 3,750 votes.

During the 2019 bypoll, Vinod retained the seat for Congress by garnering 37,516 votes while LDF Independent Manu Roy could get only 33,843 votes. Interestingly, an Independent candidate Manu KM, a namesake of the LDF candidate, polled 2,544 votes.

Total electors, voter turnout, population

Electors:
Ernakulam has an electorate of 1,59,074, comprising 77,884 males, 81,186 females and four third-genders. There are 135 polling stations in the constituency.

Voter turnout:
In the 2016 Assembly election, Ernakulam recorded a voter turnout of 71.6 percent. Of the 1,10,184 who cast their ballot, 55,227 were males and 54,957 were females.

Population:
The Ernakulam Assembly constituency comprises ward number 26 of Kochi Municipal Corporation in Kochi taluk; Cheranalloor panchayat; and ward numbers 27 to 30, 32, 35 and 52 to 66 of Kochi Municipal Corporation in Kanaynnur taluk.

As per Census 2011, of Kerala's 3.34 crore population, 54.73 percent are followers of Hinduism, followed by 26.56 percent followers of Islam and 18.38 percent Christians. Hinduism is the major religion in 13 of the state's 14 districts.
Malappuram is the only district in Kerala where Islam is the major religion with 70.24 percent of the district's total population following the religion.

The state has a tiny population that follows Jainism (0.01 percent), Sikhism (0.01 percent), Buddhism (0.01 percent) and 0.02 percent (other religions). Nearly 0.26 percent in the state didn't state their religion during the 2011 Census.

Election date and timing

The Kerala Assembly/Niyama Sabha polls will be held on 6 April, 2021, along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The day will also see phase three polls in Assam and West Bengal.

The Kerala Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 140 seats, of which, 14 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Castes and two seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes.

The outgoing Assembly has eight female MLAs and rest 132 are male MLAs. The incumbent Kerala Niyamasabha will expire on 1 June, 2021.

Political alliances and Kerala

Elections in Kerala have traditionally been a contest between the UDF and the LDF with power swinging between the two groups.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress-led UDF had won 19 out of the state’s 20 Lok Sabha seats banking on incumbency against the ruling LDF. However, repeating a similar feat in the Assembly polls is going to be an uphill task for the UDF.

The LDF has not only managed to overcome anti-incumbency in the 2020 local body polls but also managed to make inroads into UDF votebanks, particularly in Thrissur, Ernakulam, and Kottayam districts.

The NDA, which is emerging as a third front in Kerala, will be hoping to increase its tally in the Assembly polls. However, given that the BJP-led NDA didn't meet the expectations in the 2020 local body polls despite making gains, its ability to impact either the UDF's or LDF's prospects in the Assembly election remains unclear.

Of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency, five are with the CPM-led LDF (four with CPM, and one with CPI) while IUML, a constituent of the Congress-led UDF, is the second-largest party, winning the remaining two seats (Kasaragod and Manjeshwaram) in the last Assembly polls.

BJP didn't win any of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency in 2016.