Nagpur: India would need to generate at least 83% of its electricity from (non-hydropower) renewable sources sources by 2050, if it was to commit to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. This would mean a massive 55-fold increase in use of non-hydro renewables in electricity generation within the coming three decades, from only 160 Terawatt-hour (TWh) (10%) in 2019.
This was revealed in a first-of-its-kind analysis, ‘Peaking and Net Zero for India’s Energy Sector CO2 emissions’, released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), an Asia-based policy research institute. The study examines key variables that would influence the country’s choice of peaking year and net-zero year for its carbon dioxide emissions related to the energy sector. It accounts for 88% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
The study highlights that to achieve net-zero by 2050 the share of electricity in India’s industrial energy use must rise three-fold, from 20.3% in 2018 to 70% in 2050. “The share of electric vehicles in passenger car sales would also have to rise to 76% in 2050 from just 0.1% in 2019. The country would need to reach peak emissions within this decade if it was to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, a pace of transition unlike anything the world has seen before,” the study said.
Pointing out that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 or 2060 would need rapid systemic changes across all sectors, the study said, “It would be equally important for India to closely examine trade-offs such as increasing cost of household electricity, increasing railways passenger fares, fiscal challenges for coal-dependent states, job losses for over half a million coal mining workers, and the shifting geopolitics around energy trade and the energy transition before announcing its net-zero targets.”
Explaining the findings, CEEW fellow Vaibhav Chaturvedi, who is also author of the study, said, “We find that India would need to undergo a double transition through faster electrification of sectors and an increasing share of renewables in power generation, if it was to announce an ambitious net-zero target. Policymakers would also need to identify manufacturing sectors where electricity could replace fossil fuels. Reducing the cost of electricity to make it competitive would be equally critical. Finally, the rate of decline in India’s emission intensity of primary energy would have to be ramped up drastically to peak within the coming two decades.”
Stating that the country has already demonstrated climate leadership, CEO of CEEW Arunabha Ghosh said, “It is the only G20 nation on track to surpass its Paris Agreement targets. However, if India has to announce a net-zero target, it must choose a year that not only minimises climate impacts but also gives it enough space to develop.”