Kerala Assembly Election 2021, Changanassery profile: Kerala Congress (M)'s Job Maichil faces Kerala Congress (Joseph)'s VJ Laly

Changanassery Assembly Election 2021 | The Changanassery Assembly constituency is a Kerala Congress stronghold in the Kottayam district of Kerala.

CF Thomas, one of the founding leaders of the Kerala Congress (Mani), served as the Changanassery MLA for nine consecutive terms by winning every election since 1980.

While the CPI has had only two Assembly wins in Changanassery (in 1957 and 1967), Congress won once (in 1960). KJ Chacko of Kerala Congress had also represented the constituency in the Assembly from 1960 to 1970.

The seat has been vacant since September 2020 after Thomas’ death at the age of 81. Thomas had associated himself with the PJ Joseph faction of the KC(M) which developed a rift following KM Mani’s demise in 2019.

While Kerala Congress (M) has fielded Advocate Job Maichil from the seat, the Kerala Congress (Joseph) faction ha fielded VJ Laly from the seat.

Also in the frey are SDPI's MK Nizamuddin, Rejitha Jayaram of SUCI (Communist), BJP' Advocate G Raman Nair, BSP's Amruth Dev T, and Independent candidates Joemon Joseph Srampickal, Tijo Karikkandam and Babychen Mukkadan.

Past election results and winners

In the 2016 election, Kerala Congress (M) leader CF Thomas retained the Changanassery seat with 50,371 votes. His closest rival, Independent candidate KC Joseph, polled 48,522 votes.

Total electors, voter turnout, population

Electors:
Changanassery has 1,68,734 registered voters who can vote in the upcoming Assembly election. There are 81,227 male voters, 87,505 female voters and two third-gender voters in the constituency. Changanassery has 172 polling stations.

Voter turnout:
The voter turnout in the 2016 Assembly election was 75.25 percent. A total of 1.25 lakh voters of the total 1.66 lakh registered electors cast their vote.

Population:
The Changanassery Assembly constituency comprises Changanassery municipality; and Kurichy, Madappally, Paippad, Thrikkodithanam and Vazhappally panchayats in Changanassery taluk.

As per Census 2011, of Kerala's 3.34 crore population, 54.73 percent are followers of Hinduism, followed by 26.56 percent followers of Islam and 18.38 percent Christians. Hinduism is the major religion in 13 of the state's 14 districts.
Malappuram is the only district in Kerala where Islam is the major religion with 70.24 percent of the district's total population following the religion.

The state has a tiny population that follows Jainism (0.01 percent), Sikhism (0.01 percent), Buddhism (0.01 percent) and 0.02 percent (other religions). Nearly 0.26 percent in the state didn't state their religion during the 2011 Census.

Election date and timing

The Kerala Assembly/Niyama Sabha polls will be held on 6 April, 2021, along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The day will also see phase three polls in Assam and West Bengal.

The Kerala Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 140 seats, of which, 14 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Castes and two seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes.

The outgoing Assembly has eight female MLAs and rest 132 are male MLAs. The incumbent Kerala Niyamasabha will expire on 1 June, 2021.

Political alliances and Kerala

Elections in Kerala have traditionally been a contest between the UDF and the LDF with power swinging between the two groups.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress-led UDF had won 19 out of the state’s 20 Lok Sabha seats banking on incumbency against the ruling LDF. However, repeating a similar feat in the Assembly polls is going to be an uphill task for the UDF.

The LDF has not only managed to overcome anti-incumbency in the 2020 local body polls but also managed to make inroads into UDF votebanks, particularly in Thrissur, Ernakulam, and Kottayam districts.

The NDA, which is emerging as a third front in Kerala, will be hoping to increase its tally in the Assembly polls. However, given that the BJP-led NDA didn't meet the expectations in the 2020 local body polls despite making gains, its ability to impact either the UDF's or LDF's prospects in the Assembly election remains unclear.

Of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency, five are with the CPM-led LDF (four with CPM, and one with CPI) while IUML, a constituent of the Congress-led UDF, is the second-largest party, winning the remaining two seats (Kasaragod and Manjeshwaram) in the last Assembly polls.

BJP didn't win any of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency in 2016.