The US has followed Europe in previous covid-19 surges. Will It happen again?
5 min read . Updated: 20 Mar 2021, 09:11 AM IST - Half of states are seeing an uptick in newly reported cases; possible rise comes as vaccinations pick up
Federal officials this week warned that the U.S. may be on track for another surge in Covid-19 cases, trailing Europe by a few weeks in a pattern that has been seen throughout the pandemic.
European countries now implementing new lockdowns amid a resurgence in infections each took an upward trend after disregarding known mitigation strategies, said Centers for Disease Control and Prevention head Dr. Rochelle Walensky, noting it was a warning sign for the U.S.
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France on Friday imposed a monthlong lockdown in Paris and other parts of the country. Italy earlier this week implemented new restrictions.
The U.S. in general has followed the European Union by a few weeks in the dynamics of the outbreak, Dr. Anthony Fauci said this week. In Europe, cases came down, plateaued and then countries pulled back on mitigation methods and had a rebound in cases, he said in a conversation with The Wall Street Journal.
“They are in the process of a rebound now, which is really something we absolutely want to avoid," Dr. Fauci said. He added that given the current level of community infection in the U.S., it is risky to pull back on all the preventive modalities.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows that in 25 states, the average number of new cases over the past seven days is greater than the average number of cases over the past 14 days, indicating cases are rising. Those states include Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. The number of states trending in this direction has seesawed over the past several weeks, growing from just five states a month ago.
The U.S. comprises many local epidemics, with different patterns in states governed by community decisions on interventions and vaccinations, said Yonatan Grad, an assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
“I don’t know that it makes sense to compare the entire U.S. to what’s happening in other places," Dr. Grad said.
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If case numbers and hospitalizations are going up in places where restrictions have been lifted and bars, restaurants and more activities have reopened, that raises concerns about an increase in transmission, Dr. Grad said. In those places, he added, the expectation is that the numbers would continue to go up.
In Michigan, case positivity has increased for more than three weeks, with every region either plateaued or with increasing positivity, according to data tracked by the University of Michigan. According to the CDC, the highly transmissible coronavirus variant first identified in the U.K., known as B.1.1.7, is prevalent in the state, with 616 cases.
At first, the postholiday decline in new Covid-19 cases was steady in Michigan, and then it started to stall and rise, said Emily Toth Martin, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at University of Michigan School of Public Health.
The number of cases in younger age groups, below age 50, are rising, said Dr. Martin, and there are reports of clusters of cases happening around school-related activities outside of the classroom.
Dr. Martin said she has been working with a team doing genomic sequencing of Covid-19 cases. In Michigan, she said, they are testing for variants within known clusters, instead of random sampling in the community.
“If you compare us to a state that is randomly sampling across the community, it looks like we have a variant problem," Dr. Martin said, “when really, we’re just looking for it in a more-directed fashion."
The U.K. variant isn’t the predominant strain moving through the community, Dr. Martin said. Instead, the rise in case count is being driven by changes in behavior, more mobility and more opening up.
That will lead to fluctuations in case counts, especially because the number of people vaccinated within the community isn’t that high, she said. Around 22% of residents have been given at least one shot, according to a Journal analysis of CDC data.
“We’re getting out over our skis a little bit, in terms of having a lot of enthusiasm about re-engaging and starting to open things back up and starting to have gatherings again, when really none of the people involved in those activities are actually protected or immune," Dr. Martin said.
Overall, the Covid-19 positivity rate continues to decline in the U.S., with a seven-day average of 4.1%. According to CDC data, Covid-19 cases per capita are highest in the 18 to 24 age group, followed by those 25 to 34.
The possible plateau comes as the vaccination campaign in the U.S., seen as key to ending the pandemic, picks up speed. Last week, the country passed the milestone of 100 million vaccine doses administered. And on Friday, the U.S. hit President Biden’s goal to provide 100 million doses of vaccine during his first 100 days in office, weeks ahead of schedule. The pace of vaccination is now 2.5 million doses a day on average; nearly 12% of the U.S. population is vaccinated, according to data from Johns Hopkins.
By comparison, 3.68% of Italian, 3.64% of German, 3.37% of French and 2.65% of U.K. residents are vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins. The EU vaccination effort has been hindered by a shortage of doses, making it likely that only a small portion of the general public will get a shot by the end of summer, while the spread of highly contagious coronavirus variants accelerates across the region.
The majority of Americans who have been fully vaccinated are ages 50 and up, according to CDC data.
But with the U.S. choosing to prioritize a limited number of vaccines for older or vulnerable adults—who are at greater risk for serious complications and death from Covid-19—it means that those who are perhaps more likely to move about the community are going to be vaccinated later, according to both Dr. Martin and Dr. Grad.
“It makes sense, if your goal is to reduce deaths, to focus on vaccinating those at highest risk of dying if infected," Dr. Grad said, adding, “there are some contexts where you would want to vaccinate those who are at highest risk of transmitting to get cases down, in order to reduce deaths."
This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text.
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