Morigaon heading for a triangular fight
By Dalim Phukan
Morigaon, March 20: A flurry of political activities have begun in three constituencies of the Morigaon district after the announcement of candidates by almost all major political parties. The three constituencies namely Morigaon, Jagiroad and Laharighat are all set to go for polls during the second phase of the assembly elections on April 1.
Rama Kanta Deori, the incumbent BJP MLA from 80-Morigaon constituency is one of the lucky legislators who has successfully secured a ticket from the BJP, given the fact that many stalwarts were denied tickets this time around. The constituency has a total of approximately 1.91 lakh voters and even though there is an undercurrent of anti-incumbency against Deori, yet the BJP government’s beneficiary vote bank policy will play a vital role in the final outcome in the constituency.
The main opposition Congress, on the other hand, has left the seat to its alliance partner CPI. A political heavyweight from CPI and former two time MLA from Morigaon Munin Mahanta has been projected as its candidate for the forthcoming election. Mahanta’s strong rural vote base dates back to 1991-2000, but many of his comrades migrated to either Congress or BJP as he had faced defeat against Congress candidate Jon Jonali Baruah in 2001, 2006 and 2011, then again by BJP candidate Rama Kanta Deori in 2016.
So this has now led to a virtual division between the local leaders and workers of Congress over the alliance with the CPI and as a result Mahanta may be losing out on the constituency once again. Now, it is important to note that BJP shall aim for the votes of the majority group and this polarisation might help Deori in the ensuing polls.
Notably, Morigaon has 56 percent Hindu voters and 44 percent Muslim voters (both indigenous plus migrated Muslims). Then again among the Hindu voters there are ST, SC and OBC that are a major fraction of its composition. Among the Tiwa tribe, it will be safe to assume that the majority will go in support of Deori.
However, the supporters of the other three ST aspirants who were denied the BJP ticket namely Paban Manta, former CEM of Tiwa Autonomous Council; Jadav Konwar, leading BJP leader and Hemanta Deori may go against Rama Kanta Deori.
As such, it seems that the ST voters will be divided in the forthcoming poll. Meanwhile, a fresh face Bani Das, one of the secretaries of Assam Jatiya Parishad will also contest from 80-Morigaon constituency. With the CAA in mind and the new found regionalism, Bani may give the BJP candidate a run for his money. Hence, it is going to be an interesting trilateral fight in the LAC.
Coming to 79-Jagiroad (SC) constituency, which boasts of the highest voters in the district with approximately 2.38 lakh voters, it was being represented by one of the influencing ministers and a trustworthy MLA of Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma’s brigade, Pijush Hazarika. Against him there are four candidates namely Swapan Kumar Mandal from Congress, former minister Bubul Das from AJP, Dipak Das from Raijor Dal and Sukanta Majumdar as Independent in the fray. As per the data of voters’ list, the highest number of Bengali Hindu voters are in Jagiroad constituency followed by Muslim (Migrated) voters. The rest consist of Assamese Hindu, ST (Tiwa and Bodo), Nepali, Tea Tribes, etc. Here, the Hindu Bengali voters play a vital role in the final outcome. And keeping this mind the Congress has fielded Swapan Mandal from the constituency which may tilt the game in Congress’ favour. Mandal, a former member of Morigaon Zila Parishad from Mayong during 2006-11 has a commanding position over Monoha, Pokoria and Mayong mouza Hindu Bengali voters. On the other hand, though the BJP camp has been claiming that the Hindu Bengali vote bank is intact and even the Minority Muslim voters have shifted to saffron party yet the field surveys say otherwise. The All Assam Bengali Yuva Chatra Parishad repeatedly blamed the BJP led state government that Bengali refugee problems were not solved and thousands of Hindu Bengali refugees are still in detention camps. As such, if the Swapan Mandal influence prevails at Jagiroad then it will not be all bed of roses for the BJP heavyweight Pijush Hazarika.
Moreover, Mandal enjoys the full support of AIUDF in the constituency after Congress and AIUDF sealed their alliance. As such, majority portion of Muslim minority votes may also tilt in favour of Congress. The remaining Assamese Hindu, ST, SC, Nepali, Tea Tribes votes may be divided between Pijush and former minister Bubul Das. All said and done if the division takes place in Hindu Bengali votes there will be a direct fight between Congress and BJP at Jagiroad in forthcoming election in this LAC.
