The forthcoming elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry, will answer a question that is on top of the mind for all India-watchers -- will the BJP continue to grow or will there be new trends emerging? At least eight points of reference connected to this set of elections help us make sense of this question, in its multiple dimensions.
First, these elections are outside the Hindi-Hindu heartland of BJP dominance. Hindu nationalism outside the Hindi belt, in the western States of Gujarat and Maharashtra grew with a supplementary diet of regionalism. After having swept the Hindi belt and the western States by 2014, the BJP began to look east and south. In 2016, by winning Assam, it made remarkable inroads into northeastern India. The party won Tripura in 2018. It gained power in several other northeastern states, but through political machinations. In 2019, it achieved a dramatic surge in West Bengal, a bastion of the Indian Left until 2011. Its southern push continues. The most hostile terrains are Kerala and TN, but the BJP remains relentless. In these Assembly elections, we see an intensified push by the BJP into the geographical peripheries of India, where Opposition politics remains strong.
New forces: Gazi Sahabuddin Siraji, Canning East candidate of the ISF, a new party offering a platform for segments of Muslims unhappy with the CM. | Photo Credit: Special Arrangement
(Gazi Sahabuddin Siraji, a candidate of the ISF, a new party in West Bengal offering a platform for segments of Muslims unhappy with the CM.)
Secondly, these polls could tell us something about the direction of Muslim politics. Three of these States have the highest proportion of Muslim population in the country - Assam (34.22%), West Bengal (27.01%) and Kerala (26.56%), compared to the BJP strongholds of Gujarat’s 9.67 % and UP’s 19.26%. Muslim politics in the country is in a churn and the community is considering options. In Kerala, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has built a model of developmental community politics and it is accused by extremist elements of not being Islamic enough. The Muslim populations in other States feel disempowered in the numbers game of religious majoritarianism. They are conflicted in their approach towards mainstream parties, such as the RJD in Bihar. Asaduddin Owaisi, leader of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen based in Hyderabad, has been trying to expand his foothold to other States. He had plans for West Bengal that are now scuttled by cleric Abbas Siddiqui who floated Indian Secular Front (ISF), which is now part of the Congress-Left alliance. Owaisi is trying to make his presence felt in TN. The nature and character of Muslim politics in Kerala are also an outcome of the educational and material levels of the community there. In Assam, the AUDF has grown as an influential party and is part of the Congress alliance. In the face of rising Hindutva, Muslim politics is also evolving. Watch this space.
Third, there is a contest over the new citizenship regime comprising the National Population Register, the National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Hindutva politics has been assertive towards communities and regions in the periphery of the country, but its outreach into the peripheries has created a dilemma for the party. For instance, it does not seek vote for its Kashmir policy in Kashmir while its Kashmir policy wins votes in the heartland. The citizenship triad is different. West Bengal and Assam are two States where the citizenship politics is playing out. As this editorial on Assam points out, the fault-lines of religion, language and ethnicity have been mixed up. Neat communal binaries do not work when questions of linguistic and ethnic identities come into play, and the BJP is unsure of how to use the citizenship controversy to its advantage.
[The paradox of anti-incumbency in West Bengal is that a universal condemnation of the TMC is combined with a willingness to make allowances for Didi, I find in my travels in the State. Here’s an overview of the scenario.]
Fourth, what happens to the last Communist bastion of India, Kerala? Early achievements of the State in combating the Covid-19 pandemic brought international attention to the Left government in Kerala. The current dispensation is trying a daring social engineering to retain power. The CPI-M, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is wooing minority Muslims and Christians, unsettling the social alignments that have held true for decades. The result is a triangular current of shifting loyalties: a section of Christians and Muslims leaving the Congress-led UDF for the LDF; a section of Dalits and backward caste Ezhavas leaving the LDF for a rising BJP, and the Hindu Nairs leaving the Congress and the LDF for the BJP. In this churn, the CPM could be an immediate gainer, but the BJP stands to gain too. The Congress could end up as the biggest loser and the party’s attempt is to arrest this. Are we looking at a Congress-mukt Kerala? Read this article by historian Rajan Gurukal to understand some peculiar achievements and challenges of Kerala politics.
The fifth element to note is the churn in Dravidian politics, with the passing of the patriarch M. Karunanidhi and matriarch, J. Jayalalithaa who formed its two poles until the 2016 election. Tamil Nadu politics is an open field for new alignments and possibilities. What could be the shape of things to come? Read this piece by Narayan Lakshman.
The sixth element to note is the interaction among regionalism, ethnic politics and Hindu nationalism. All these States have their respective, distinct and defining regional characters. In the face of the strong push by the BJP, how will politics change in these places? The question of ethnic populations of Assam and West Bengal is a different but related aspect. Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s recent statement that tribals are not Hindus has caused heartburn in the Sangh Parivar but West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee has requested him to campaign in the State for her. Meanwhile, it would be useful to remember two facts about West Bengal. One, some of the earliest arguments for Hindu nationalism originated her and two, the State has traumatic memories of communal partition.
Poll prep: DMK president M.K. Stalin with party cadre at Simmakkal in Madurai on Wednesday
(M.K. Stalin, son of M. Karunanidhi, is now at the helm of DMK in Tamil Nadu.)
The seventh point is the complicated relationship between dynastic politics and the rise of the BJP. The BJP harvests the popular resentment against dynastic politics as votes, but the strongest resistance to it also comes from some dynasties. A new group of scions are major players in this round. DMK leader M.K. Stalin is at the helm for the first time, and his son has also been introduced. Mamata Banejee is facing flak from loyalists and opponents alike for the role of her nephew Abhishek Banerjee. Gourav Gogoi is trying to hold on, after the passing of his father Tarun Gogoi in Assam. These elections will be critical for the future of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress. If the party manages to win back Assam and Kerala, leading the alliance, and in TN as junior ally of DMK, Mr. Gandhi might well be back in the saddle of the party. His second coming at the helm of Congress politics, after retiring the old guard, will be consequential.
That leads us to the eighth question, which is about Opposition politics. Is there any scope for a consolidated opposition to the BJP? The notion that alliances can aggregate the individual vote shares of partners in the previous election -- the so-called index of opposition unity -- was never a foolproof argument. The rise of the BJP has smashed that theory to smithereens, and the collapse of the SP-BSP alliance in UP in 2019, was a forceful case in point. The Congress-AUDF-Left alliance in Assam can win easily if the alliance gets all the votes they individually got in 2016. But will it work that way? Whose votes will the Congress-Left-ISF alliance cut in West Bengal and to what extent? At whose cost is the BJP growing in Kerala -- how much of it will be coming from the LDF and how much from the UDF? Indications regarding these questions will influence the course of politics of both the BJP and the Opposition.
Give and Take
“They will make ‘Sonar Bangla’ by selling the assets as they have done in Delhi. The only thing that they have left is changing the name of India to Modi.”
-Mamata Banerjee on Prime Minister Narendra Modi
“Bengal chose you in the role of ‘Didi’ (elder sister) but you preferred being bua (aunt) to your bhatija (nephew).”
- Narendra Modi on Mamata Banerjee
From Reliable Sources
There are murmurs of a political upset in Jharkhand. Any time after the Assembly elections, expect some changes in the State.
What I am reading
As I travel to West Bengal and Assam this week to write on the elections, it is a good time to read Bertil Lintner’s Great Game East: India, China and the Struggle for Asia’s Most Volatile Frontier. Particularly, Chapter 5, titled ‘Assam and Bangladesh: Foreigners? What Foreigners?’
Also, The Law of Force: The Violent Heart of Indian Politics by Thomas Blom Hansen (Aleph)
The Political Line newsletter will return next Friday with more in depth takes on the elections and other political developments.
