Israel’s Final Polls Show Another Election Night Stalemate

(Bloomberg) --

The last polls before Israel’s March 23 national vote point to another inconclusive outcome on election night.

Any prospective leader will have to form a coalition government, with 12 parties in serious contention to enter parliament. Several small factions and the undeclared intentions of a prospective kingmaker will tilt the scales, and it’s unclear what the final alliances could be.

A poll conducted for the Israel Hayom newspaper and i24 TV shows a potential bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu able to muster 60 of parliament’s 120 seats -- but only with the support of the undeclared Yamina, a predominantly religious faction that opposes Palestinian statehood. The Maagar Mochot poll of 2,087 people had a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.

A poll for the Jerusalem Post and Maariv newspapers by Panels Research shows that even with Yamina, neither the pro- or anti-Netanyahu blocs could form a government without the support of the United Arab List, which is grazing the four-seat threshold for entering parliament. A slate of Arab lawmakers has never joined an Israeli coalition before, though in the 1990s Arab parties did vote with the coalition without joining it in order to support efforts to make peace with the Palestinians.

The poll of 1,001 people had a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

Four parties appear to be in a precarious electoral position. If any of them doesn’t get into parliament, that could dramatically change the calculus, because in Israel’s fragmented political landscape, a seat or two could decide the outcome.

No polling can be published after midnight Friday. Additional surveys will be released on Friday night news programs.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.