Despite its new travel plan, the EU jury is still out on prospects for any sun holidays this year

With just 10pc of EU citizens ‘half-vaccinated’ due to roll-out delays, the chance of a holiday abroad this year looks slim. Photo: Enrique Calvo

John Downing Twitter

March 19 2021 02:30 AM

STILL fancy your chances of hitting your favourite sunspot for a break this summer?

Well, it’s not entirely out of the question, as the EU’s policy-guiding Commission is seeking agreement on a plan for ‘Covid travel certificates’. The aim is to overcome considerable internal opposition and have it agreed by June, allowing holiday travel inside the EU.

Yet even if this plan does come together in time, it could still be obstructed by the ongoing EU vaccination debacle, with chronic lack of supply compounding roll-out problems, leaving just one in 10 citizens “half-vaccinated” so far. The dire situation is now compounded by a simmering row about EU vaccine exports – mainly targeting the United Kingdom, which is speeding ahead with its vaccination campaign.

Both interlinked issues will come to a head at an EU leaders’ summit next week when Taoiseach Micheál Martin joins his colleagues for crunch discussions. So far all signs are that Ireland has doubts about both the travel idea and about moves to curb vaccine exports.

To qualify for the travel plan people will need either proof of vaccination, or, a negative test result, or, evidence of having suffered Covid and recovered from it. It’s Brussels’ response to clamours from sun countries, like Greece and Spain, to use vaccination certificates alone to allow travel and save a chunk of the 2021 season after a total write-off last year.

Ireland has so far been in the travel sceptics’ corner, along with France and Germany, who fear there are far too many obstacles in the way of a premature plan. The EU Commission’s three-pronged travel authorisation is an effort to dial down earlier Franco-German opposition to the vaccination certificates due to fears of discrimination against non-vaccinated citizens.

We also have to note the slow rate of vaccination progress in both Germany and France. By yesterday in France, a country of 67 million people, just 5.6 million had got their first vaccination and only 2.3 million people were fully vaccinated. The temporary halting of AstraZeneca vaccines has added to the high rate of vaccine resistance among the French.

It also seems ironic that the EU announced its ‘travel certs’ plan on the same day it also kicked off a major international vaccine brawl – especially targeted at the United Kingdom. Yesterday it became clear that heavy hitters, including France, Germany and Italy, all backed a veiled threat made on Wednesday by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to block Covid-19 vaccine exports to countries not supplying any vaccines to the EU.

Ireland, along with Netherlands and Belgium, took a more cautious stance on the idea of EU vaccine export curbs. All three have considerable pharmaceutical sectors and are heavily dependent on export revenues and multinational jobs.

So far the EU has clung to the market reality that it could not block exports. In the first quarter of the year some 40 million shots of vaccine have been exported from the EU to various countries including the US and UK, which got 10 million EU-made vaccines. Despite EU export-ban threats in late January, only one small vaccine consignment has so far been blocked, involving an order from Italy bound for Australia.

Ms von der Leyen let her frustration be known at “a lack of reciprocity” whereby the UK had supplied absolutely no vaccines to the EU. Brussels diplomats yesterday confirmed that the latest tough talking from the EU is driven by serious under-delivery by the Anglo-Swedish firm AstraZeneca.

Last week, AstraZeneca conceded that it would deliver about 100 million vaccine doses to the EU by late summer. That is about one third what had originally been hoped for by the EU authorities and key member governments.

The UK has flatly denied that any vaccine export ban is in place. Brussels officials say AstraZeneca has said contractual obligations with the UK government prevents supplying the EU from two of its British-based manufacture plants.

The US does have a straight-out vaccine export ban. But the EU is reticent to stoke this issue too much right now as it also depends on US pharmaceutical raw materials which are not export banned.

On the travel issue, there is considerable pressure from tourism-dependent countries like Greece which is already in unilateral tourism talks with Israel and other countries like the UK, Canada and US. Airlines are also working on a vaccine certificate plan to help free up travel once more.

But there are practical obstacles to the new EU compromise plan, including the continuing lack of knowledge about how reliable negative tests are; the risk of vaccinated people, or those recovered from the virus, still being Covid carriers. There are also worries about the use of vaccines – such as the Russian and Chinese vaccines – which are not recognised by the EU. The Russian vaccine may be authorised soon – but the Chinese one is another issue.

However, it is clear that more ordered progress on vaccinations would go a long way towards finding a solution for an entire continent which badly needs a break from those recurring lockdown blues.